The U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry is growing at a faster rate than expected and could become the second-largest net export industry in the United States by 2031, according to a new S&P Global Energy study released in July.
Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, stated that the sector, currently valued at approximately $44 billion annually, has exceeded initial expectations thanks to the sustained increase in export capacity, the abundance of natural gas resources, and its growing contribution to global energy security.
New projections raise the economic impact of the sector
The study estimates that, by 2040, the LNG industry will generate an average of 555,000 jobs annually, contribute $1.4 trillion to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), produce $2.9 trillion in business revenues, contribute $206 billion in taxes, and generate $630 billion in labor income.
These figures represent an upward revision compared to the projections published at the end of 2024, incorporating 55,000 additional jobs, a $100 billion increase in GDP, and higher tax and business revenues.
Furthermore, S&P forecasts that gas demand for LNG exports will double to reach 36 billion cubic feet per day over the next five years, approximately 25% above previous estimates.
Abundance of gas keeps domestic prices low
One of the highlights of the report is that the expansion of exports would have a limited effect on U.S. consumers.
S&P Global projects that the cost of natural gas for households would increase, on average, by just 1.6% between 2026 and 2031, keeping the United States among the markets with the most competitive gas prices for both residential and industrial users.
Eric Eyberg, Vice President of Gas and LNG at S&P Global Energy, attributed this situation to the massive availability of gas resources, equivalent to more than 45 years of commercial production, and the extensive national pipeline network, considered the most interconnected in the world.
Infrastructure remains the main challenge
Although gas supply does not represent an immediate limitation, the study identifies infrastructure as the primary factor conditioning future market growth.
The United States has more than 480,000 kilometers of transmission pipelines, but regional bottlenecks persist, creating sharp price differences, especially in the Northeast of the country during winter months.
According to S&P Global, the addition of new transport capacity could reduce gas price peaks in markets like New England and New York by more than 20% between 2028 and 2031.
For its part, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. LNG exports will average 17.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion in 2027, consolidating the country’s expansion as the world’s leading supplier of liquefied natural gas.
SOURCE: https://www.rigzone.com/
Photo: Shutterstock
