Maritime tracking data shows that crude oil exports they remain below pre-conflict levels despite the figures released by Washington.
The flow of oil in Hormuz it continues under pressure, and the available data on tanker movements cast doubt on the Middle Eastern exports have returned to their usual levels.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the average seven-day flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is approximately 9 million barrels per day. According to the official, an additional 5 to 7 million barrels per day leave the region via pipelines and other export facilities.
Based on those calculations, the regional flow would be around 15 million barrels per day, Wright also stated that more than 20 million barrels left the Arabian Gulf region on Sunday, above the pre-conflict average.
Oil in Hormuz traffic shows another situation
However, figures obtained through ship tracking paint a different picture, Kpler, a firm that uses transponder data and satellite imagery to track maritime movements, counted 84 vessels crossing the strait during the previous week. On Sunday, there were nine.
The difference is considerable compared to the more than 100 daily transits recorded before the conflict, furthermore, Kpler’s data places the crude oil exports through the strait at 2.77 million barrels per day during the week beginning July 27. In the week beginning August 3, the volume fell to 1.74 million barrels per day.
Even during the best week on record since the start of the conflict, beginning on June 29, the volume reached 6.98 million barrels per day. That figure still falls short of the nearly 9 million barrels per day reported by Wright.
Exports from the Middle East remain low
Furthermore, extending the calculation to routes that avoid Hormuz also does not show a complete recovery of supply. Kpler estimated regional crude oil exports at 9.53 million barrels per day for the week beginning August 3. Its four-week average was 12.26 million barrels per day.
LSEG Oil Research offers a similar interpretation; its data points to exports from the Middle East, of 9.33 million barrels per day during the first 12 days of August, compared to 12.35 million in July.
For reference, Kpler placed regional shipments at approximately 18.7 million barrels per day during the quarter prior to the conflict.
Therefore, although there is movement of oil towards international markets, the available tracking data still reflects a significant difference compared to previous levels.
The pipelines relieve pressure on Hormuz
Furthermore, some of the crude oil is avoiding the strait via land-based infrastructure, Wright’s estimate of between 5 and 7 million barrels per day transported via alternative routes finds greater support in the available data Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline for example, it has allowed the transfer of more than 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea.
Producers in the region have increased their use of these connections to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Other alternatives include exports from Yanbu and shipments using facilities in Oman and Fujairah.
These routes help maintain supply but have a limited physical capacity and do not completely replace the volume that normally passes through Hormuz.
The EIA maintains a restrictive outlook
The U.S. Energy Information Administration also believes the constraints will continue, in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency raised its estimate of crude oil production held up in the Middle East due to severe transit restrictions across the Strait of Gibraltar. The EIA expects these conditions to persist through August.
The daily movement of vessels reinforces that caution, on Monday only six ships crossed Hormuz in both directions and none were crude oil tankers, according to data cited by market analysts.
The discrepancy between official figures and independent tracking could become clearer in the coming weeks as shipments reach their destinations.
If regional flows really do approach the 15 million barrels per day indicated by Washington, the increase should begin to be reflected in the import records of the main buyers of Middle Eastern crude.
Source: Oil Price
Photo: Shutterstock
