Venezuela’s withdrawal from OPEC this scenario is gaining traction as Venezuela’s oil production recovers and its exports regain ground in international markets. Homayoun Falakshahi, senior commodities analyst at Kpler, noted that internal discussions are underway in Venezuela regarding a potential withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). However, the analyst believes OPEC would have little incentive to pressure Caracas with production quotas in the short term, as Venezuelan production remains at relatively modest levels and is currently exempt from the group’s cuts.
Venezuela’s withdrawal from OPEC depends on its oil production
For now, the recovery of the Venezuelan oil industry this is one of the factors reducing the urgency of a potential OPEC exit; production has increased considerably during 2026, reaching approximately 1.3 million barrels per day. Estimates cited by Kpler suggest it could reach approximately 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2027.
Furthermore, although numerous agreements related to the Venezuelan oil sector could be finalized during 2027, Falakshahi believes that the most significant capacity increases will take longer to materialize. Their effects would be more visible toward the end of the decade, therefore, leaving the organization would not automatically mean that Venezuela could rapidly increase its production.
Emily Ashford, head of energy research at Standard Chartered Bank, agrees that the physical limitations of the oil industry would remain, at least in the short term.
Venezuelan oil recovers international markets
While the membership of is being debated Venezuela in OPEC the trade in its crude oil is already undergoing significant changes. According to data cited by Kpler, Venezuelan exports to the United States exceeded 700,000 barrels per day in July. At the same time, India has once again positioned itself as a significant buyer of Merey and Boscan crudes.
Europe also reappears on this trade map, the ARA Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp region received its first Venezuelan shipment in seven years. Similarly, the Bullenbay terminal in Curaçao resumed operations under a US marketing program linked to Trafigura and Vitol. For Falakshahi, this reorganization of Venezuelan oil flows is currently more relevant to the market than the debate over the country’s continued membership in OPEC.
What would happen to the price of oil?
A potential Venezuelan exit would have a limited effect on oil prices in the short term, according to Kpler’s analysis. One reason for this is that the country still represents a relatively small proportion of global maritime exports, and its production is already exempt from OPEC cuts.
Consequently, a withdrawal would initially have a greater institutional and political significance than its direct impact on the global supply of crude oil, the scenario could change as Venezuela increases its production capacity, an industry capable of extracting considerably more oil would have greater incentives to avoid future production restrictions.
OPEC’s credibility is at stake
The potential Venezuelan withdrawal takes on special significance due to the country’s history within the organization; Venezuela was one of the five founding members of the OPEC in 1960, along with Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, oil diplomacy led by Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo played a central role in that process; therefore, a withdrawal would also have consequences for the perception of the group’s cohesion.
According to Falakshahi’s analysis, a potential Venezuelan exit combined with the withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates would eliminate approximately six million barrels per day of the organization’s production capacity, equivalent to roughly 20 % of its total capacity. For Standard Chartered, the risk extends beyond the departure of a single member. A series of withdrawals could reduce quota compliance and weaken the organization’s collective ability to manage supply.
In that scenario, Saudi Arabia would become even more important as a producer capable of adjusting its pumping, while the collective weight of OPEC would decrease.
Venezuela must balance freedom of production and influence
The decision presents both advantages and costs for Caracas, leaving OPEC would eliminate the risk of future quotas restricting the recovery of Venezuelan production. It could also strengthen the growing oil ties between Venezuela and the United States. However, remaining in the group would allow the country to maintain its ability to participate in negotiations within an organization undergoing fragmentation.
This position could grant Caracas greater strategic influence than its current production levels warrant, and Venezuelan domestic politics could end up carrying as much weight as the oil market itself. Falakshahi warns that tensions surrounding Caracas’s rapprochement with Washington could influence the country’s future relationship with OPEC.
For now, Venezuela remains within the organization, however, as it recovers production and rebuilds its trade links with the United States, India, Europe and the Caribbean, the discussion about its continued membership is taking on an increasingly strategic dimension.
Source: Rigzone
Photo: Shutterstock
