AFPM assesses 5 years of energy transition and the impact of AI

AFPM at its 2026 Summit, the organization reviewed the results of the main energy transition initiatives over the past five years. The meeting also addressed how artificial intelligence and data centers are beginning to influence investments in the sector.

AFPM analyzes an energy transition with greater discipline

During the AFPM Summit 2026, refining and petrochemical specialists analyzed which technologies met the expectations set since 2021 and which struggled to become commercially viable projects. Daniel Orr of Worley Consulting and Meaghan McCaffrey of 1898 & Co. participated in a panel dedicated to the lessons learned from five years of clean energy investments.

According to the assessment presented, clean energy accounted for approximately 65 % ​​of energy sector investment in 2025, compared to 35 % allocated to fossil fuels, the distribution reflects the influence of tax incentives, environmental policies, and emissions reduction programs. However, the results varied depending on the technology and the ability to implement each project.

Renewable diesel and renewable gas show better results

Renewable diesel and renewable natural gas these technologies were among those that came closest to initial expectations, and both were able to leverage existing infrastructure, such as pipelines, terminals, and storage systems. This advantage facilitated their market entry and access to certain incentive programs.

Carbon capture also progressed, albeit more slowly than anticipated, obtaining permits and developing the infrastructure needed to transport the captured carbon hampered several projects, while hydrogen had a more limited performance. Numerous projects in the United States were delayed or canceled, as were various blue and green ammonia proposals. McCaffrey noted that of the approximately 80 ammonia projects he tracked, only a small fraction were ever built.

The SAF remains subject to regulation

Sustainable aviation fuel, known as SAF, came in an intermediate position in the evaluation, there is demand and refineries have the technical capacity to produce it, yet the United States lacks a mechanism to boost that demand with a scope comparable to that which favored the development of renewable diesel.

During the panel, it was highlighted that the Renewable Volume Obligation contributed to creating favorable trading conditions for others renewable fuels the SAF still lacks an equivalent of that scope. This regulatory difference persists despite the high volume of US air transport activity during the summer of 2026.

Future investments will have to pass stricter filters

The experiences of these past five years have led specialists to emphasize two conditions for new projects with verifiable regional demand and greater financial discipline, the final investment decision, known as FID, will also be crucial. The aim is to prevent uncertainty from indefinitely delaying the approval of projects that have already required technical and financial resources.

To that end, risks must be assessed before presenting a proposal to the board of directors, orr suggested addressing logistical studies, risk assessments, and raw material supply and production purchase agreements from the earliest stages. He indicated that this work could begin six to eight weeks after the project’s start, and that sound technical and economic foundations must be considered as prerequisites for moving forward, carrying real weight in investment decisions.

AI increases pressure on electricity demand

Artificial intelligence emerged on the panel as one of the factors capable of changing the energy landscape again, the growth of data centers has brought the availability of electricity to the forefront of conversations between developers and customers.

For an industrial project, this means broadening the assessment beyond construction costs, demand, and raw materials, having sufficient energy can determine from the outset whether the investment is viable. The track record of original equipment manufacturers and their position in the supply chain also become important.

Delivery times for transformers, compressors, and other critical equipment can disrupt the entire schedule of a facility.

Skilled labor adds to the bottlenecks

The implementation difficulties also extend to the availability of personnel, the simultaneous construction of data centers, the expansion of refining facilities and petrochemical complexes is intensifying competition for skilled workers. Crews may have to move between digital and traditional industrial projects, adding pressure on costs, planning, and deadlines. Therefore, supply chain management must consider both the equipment and the technical personnel needed to carry out the work.

Equal incentives do not guarantee the ability to execute

Experts also noted the diversity of companies attracted by the tax credits, large multinationals and much smaller companies alike competed for the same incentives, despite having very different financial, technical, and logistical capabilities. This situation reinforces the need to review the economic fundamentals of each investment, its supply contracts, the regional market it targets, and the experience of its developers, after five years of accelerated investment, the sector appears to be entering a more selective phase, the energy transition continues to advance, while profitability, energy access, the supply chain, and construction capacity are gaining greater weight in decision-making.

Source: Hydrocarbon Processing

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