Oil rises after attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz

Oil rose this Tuesday after new reports of attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz revived concerns about possible disruptions along one of the world’s most sensitive energy routes.

Brent crude futures rose 61 cents to $72.60 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 49 cents to $69.04 a barrel at 11:40 GMT. The move reflects a renewed geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.

The Strait of Hormuz returns to the center of the market

Tensions focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime passage for the global transport of oil and liquefied natural gas. Before the start of the war with Iran, this route moved about one-fifth of the world’s daily supply of oil and LNG.

According to sources consulted, a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker were damaged near the strait. Reports point to missile fire by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard against vessels overnight.

Oil price rises on geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz

Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, noted that the attack on a ship in the area is reintroducing a geopolitical risk premium into prices. Although the impact is still moderate compared with previous episodes, the market is already watching new technical levels.

Likewise, Hansen said that further escalation could push Brent toward $75 a barrel, before bringing the $80 area into focus. For traders, the immediate risk lies in the continuity of maritime traffic and the diplomatic response between Washington and Tehran.

Negotiations between the United States and Iran weigh on the outlook

Talks for a final agreement between Tehran and Washington face renewed doubts. Iran’s foreign minister said there will be no negotiation if U.S. threats continue, following President Donald Trump’s remarks about “finishing the job” if a deal is not reached.

For now, investors are watching closely whether tensions remain limited to isolated incidents or turn into restrictions on maritime transport. Any partial closure, direct threat, or greater military presence in the area could fuel crude volatility.

Saudi Arabia evaluates logistical alternatives

In parallel, Saudi Arabia is considering expanding the capacity of its pipeline to the Red Sea’s western coast. The move would allow more crude to be transported without relying on the Strait of Hormuz and could offer an additional route for the kingdom and some Gulf neighbors.

However, interest in Saudi crude remains limited in Asia. Even after the biggest price cut in more than two decades, some rival Gulf supplies continue to be cheaper.

The market looks toward 2026 and 2027

Beyond the immediate tension, Societe Generale expects the oil market to shift from deficit to surplus toward the end of 2026 and throughout 2027. The bank estimates that supply growth will outpace weaker demand.

The institution cut its oil forecast to $75 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and to an average of $73 in 2027. It also anticipates a gradual recovery in inventories, albeit with elevated volatility as long as geopolitical and logistical risks persist.

More pressure on energy transport

In addition to tensions in Hormuz, another maritime front emerged. Kyiv’s military reported that Ukrainian drones attacked eight tanker ships from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” used to transport fuel to Crimea and evade sanctions.

With several risk hotspots active, oil is rising on the perception of threats to strategic energy routes. The market will continue to gauge each incident by its real impact on supply, shipping costs, and the security of crude and LNG flows.

Source: Reuters

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