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Global energy investment will reach $3.4 trillion in 2026, driven by the need to strengthen energy security and diversify supply sources amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The report indicates that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is generating a profound review of energy strategies by governments and companies. The situation has increased the perception of risk regarding traditional trade routes and is accelerating the search for alternatives to ensure supply.
Energy Security Returns to the Center of Decisions
The current energy crisis represents the second major disruption episode in less than five years following the consequences caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
According to the IEA, producing and consuming countries are increasing their efforts to diversify transport routes, expand supply infrastructure, and strengthen local generation capacity. This strategy includes the development of new pipelines, energy terminals, and projects aimed at reducing dependence on vulnerable maritime corridors.
Likewise, numerous governments are strengthening their plans to leverage available resources within their borders, including renewable energy, nuclear energy, natural gas, and other conventional sources.
Global Energy Investment Focuses on Electrical Grids
The electricity sector continues to lead global energy spending trends.
The IEA forecasts that approximately $2.2 trillion will be allocated to electrical grids, energy storage, electrification, energy efficiency, nuclear energy, and low-emission technologies. Meanwhile, around $1.2 trillion will be directed to projects linked to oil, natural gas, and coal.
The expansion of electrical grids has become a strategic priority due to sustained demand growth. Investment in electrical infrastructure is estimated to reach nearly $1.6 trillion, while spending on transmission and distribution networks could approach $550 billion.
Furthermore, investment in battery energy storage will exceed $100 billion, reflecting the growing importance of flexibility and stability in electrical systems.
Renewables and Nuclear Energy Maintain Their Growth
Low-emission technologies continue to capture the majority of investment allocated to electricity generation.
The report projects that investments in renewable energy will reach $665 billion in 2026, of which approximately $365 billion will correspond to solar projects.
Although the growth rate is more moderate than in previous years, low-emission sources represent more than 70% of global investment in electricity generation.
Nuclear energy also maintains an upward trajectory. Annual investment already exceeds $80 billion, supported by the construction of nearly 80 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity distributed across 15 countries.
Natural Gas Gains Prominence Over Oil
Unlike oil, whose investment could decrease for the third consecutive year to fall below $500 billion, natural gas shows a more favorable evolution.
The IEA forecasts that investments in natural gas will reach $330 billion, the highest level of the past decade. This growth is primarily driven by new liquefied natural gas export (LNG) projects, especially in the United States and Qatar.
Uncertainties regarding the duration of high oil prices, together with long execution timelines and supply chain constraints, continue to condition the expansion of new oil projects in several regions.
Artificial Intelligence and Data Centers Increase Electricity Demand
Another factor transforming investment decisions is the rapid growth of data centers and artificial intelligence applications.
In markets such as the United States, additional electricity demand is driving new investments in generation and electrical grids. During 2025, orders for new gas plants reached 25-year highs, driven largely by the energy needs of data processing centers.
At the same time, high demand for electric turbines in the United States and the Middle East is reducing the availability of this equipment in other international markets.
Financing Emerges as a New Challenge
Despite the anticipated increase in investments, financial volatility stemming from the conflict in the Middle East introduces new risks for the sector.
The IEA warns that rising financing costs could particularly affect capital-intensive projects such as nuclear facilities, large-scale renewable parks, and major electrical infrastructure.
The impact could be more significant in emerging and developing economies, where financing access conditions already present greater difficulties than in advanced markets.
Source and photo: IEA