The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reaffirmed its outlook for sustained growth in oil demand over the coming decades and stated that it sees no signs of a consumption peak before 2050. The projection is part of the 2026 edition of its World Oil Outlook report, where the organization maintains a more optimistic view than other international energy agencies.
Oil demand will continue to grow until 2030
According to the report, global oil demand will reach 113.3 million barrels per day in 2030, compared to the 105.1 million estimated for 2025. The forecast remains virtually unchanged from the one presented last year.
OPEC believes that economic and demographic growth in regions such as India, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America will continue to drive crude oil consumption in the coming years. These markets represent a significant portion of the energy expansion planned on a global scale.
Changes in energy policy favor the use of oil
The organization maintains that the priorities of many governments have evolved toward a greater focus on energy security and energy affordability. This shift is reportedly influencing policy decisions related to energy development and fuel supply.
Furthermore, OPEC noted that the adoption of electric vehicles in some regions is progressing at a slower pace than initially anticipated. The agency also highlighted adjustments in energy policies in the United States and Europe that could favor more robust demand for hydrocarbons over the medium and long term.
Although China continues to make progress in the incorporation of renewable energy, the organization considers that this process will not be sufficient to curb the global growth of oil consumption over the coming decades.
OPEC rules out a demand peak before mid-century
In its long-term forecasts, OPEC slightly raised its demand estimate for 2050 to 124 million barrels per day. This figure exceeds the projection included in the previous report and reinforces the organization’s position that oil consumption will continue to increase.
This vision contrasts with that of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which forecasts significantly lower demand levels toward the middle of the century. The differences between the two institutions reflect distinct perspectives on the speed of the energy transition and the future role of fossil fuels.
US production and challenges for the oil market
The report also addresses the evolution of global supply. OPEC estimates that US shale oil production peaked in 2025 and forecasts limited growth for the remainder of the decade.
On the other hand, the organization considers that production from countries outside the OPEC+ alliance will begin to stabilize in the early 2030s. This scenario could increase the relevance of producers integrated into the organization and its allies within the balance of the global energy market.
Meanwhile, the sector continues to face geopolitical and investment challenges. OPEC estimates that the oil industry will require cumulative investments of approximately $17.7 trillion through 2050 to meet future global energy demand.
Source: Reuters
Photo: Shutterstock
