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Investment in artificial intelligence is helping to sustain the global economy in 2026 while the Middle East energy shock increases pressure on 2027.
According to the OECD’s provisional economic outlook, global growth will be 2.9% in 2026 compared to 3.4% in 2025. For 2027, the organization forecasts an expansion of 3.0%.
AI sustains investment and trade
The OECD notes that spending on data centers Semiconductors and infrastructure linked to artificial intelligence are driving investment, production and trade.
In the United States, this boost helps offset weak consumer spending. The US economy is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027.
Similarly, Japan and Korea benefit from the increase in technology exports related to AI.
The energy shock increases the risks
However, the conflict in the Middle East continues to pose high risks to energy prices and the supply of raw materials.
The OECD estimates that G20 inflation will reach 4.1% in 2026 and fall to 3.6% in 2027.
Furthermore, a combination of energy disruptions, extreme weather events, higher bond yields, and lower returns on AI investment could reduce global growth by 0.7 percentage points during 2027.
In this scenario, the OECD warns that central banks may need to adjust interest rates if inflationary pressures increase or if growth loses momentum.
Source: OECD
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