Brent crude oil prices near $100 per barrel could limit China’s oil imports during the fourth quarter, despite the recovery in purchases recorded since June. This scenario forces refineries in the Asian country to more cautiously evaluate their international acquisitions given the impact of high prices on operating costs, refining margins, and supply planning for the coming months.
Brent crude at $100 moderates Chinese oil purchases
The China’s oil imports they could register limited growth during the fourth quarter of 2026 if Brent continues near $100 per barrel. Goldman Sachs estimates that high prices will reduce the incentive for Chinese refineries to accelerate their international purchases, specifically, the bank expects Chinese crude oil imports to increase by around 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) between the third and fourth quarters. This forecast reduces one of the fears surrounding the oil market, namely that a strong recovery in demand from the Asian giant would add new upward pressure on international crude oil prices.
Chinese imports recovered in August
On the other hand, China has already begun to increase its purchases after the sharp decline recorded during the second quarter. Imports reached8.93 million bpd in August, which represents a growth of6.2% compared to JulyIt was also the second consecutive month of recovery after purchases hit their lowest level in a decade in June.
During the preceding months, high oil prices and supply restrictions from Middle East while these factors had led refineries to reduce their purchases, the easing of Chinese restrictions on fuel exports is now offering new incentives to increase refining activity. However, the cost of crude oil continues to influence purchasing decisions.
Goldman Sachs targets Middle Eastern supply
In this context, Goldman Sachs believes that China may cease to be the primary driver of oil prices in the coming months. According to the bank, further deterioration of Middle Eastern oil production and export infrastructure poses a greater upside risk than increased Chinese imports.
This difference is relevant for the market, a moderate recovery in purchases by the Asian giant could be absorbed more easily, while a further supply disruption would directly affect the availability of barrels. Likewise, Brent crude’s performance will continue to influence refinery activity. Staying around $100 makes raw materials more expensive and forces companies to pay closer attention to their margins.
Chinese refineries seek to reduce transportation costs
Shipping rates add further pressure. With oil freight rates at high levels, major Chinese state-owned refineries are prioritizing the total cost of crude delivery over a rapid increase in imports. Emma Li, senior analyst of the Chinese oil market at Vortexa, explained that shorter shipping routes allow for lower costs per unit delivered and faster response to market changes.
This strategy can be especially important when margins associated with Asian refined products remain high, therefore, refineries have incentives to seek competitive supplies and optimize shipping routes instead of indiscriminately increasing their purchases.
The market is observing the balance between China and supply
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the behavior of the crude oil imports from China it will depend largely on the international price and logistical costs. Brent crude near $100 could curb purchases even after the recovery seen in July and August. At the same time, a price drop could quickly change that scenario by improving refinery margins.
For now, Goldman Sachs’ forecast places the focus of the oil market on the risks to Middle Eastern supply, while the Asian giant maintains a more price-sensitive purchasing strategy.
Source: Oil Price
Photo: Shutterstock
