Mexico’s upstream sector is undergoing a phase of managed decline, marked by a significant reduction in drilling activity, lower exploratory results, and a contracting production base.
According to recent operational data from Petróleos Mexicanos, this trend is beginning to exert structural pressure on future production capacity.
Drilling activity has undergone a drastic adjustment over the past two years. In 2025, the total number of wells initiated fell to 78, compared to 138 in 2024 and 217 in 2023, representing a 64% contraction in just two years.
This decline reflects both the slowdown in development projects and a considerable reduction in exploration.
More Efficient Exploration, but Less Representative
Although the exploratory success rate increased to 39%, this figure must be interpreted with caution. The improvement is primarily due to a smaller base of drilled wells, rather than geological or technological advances. In fact, the absolute number of productive exploratory wells fell to seven, down from 17 in 2023.
Meanwhile, development drilling maintains high levels of operational efficiency, with success rates exceeding 90%. However, the volume of activity is significantly lower: only 60 development wells were initiated in 2025, compared to 156 in 2023. This limits the system’s ability to offset the natural decline of mature fields.
In particular, exploratory wells decreased to only 18 in 2025, compared to 61 in 2023. Likewise, discoveries were reduced to two, compared to eight in 2024, evidencing a weakening in the generation of new resources.
Contraction of the Production Base
Reduced drilling activity is already directly impacting the country’s production base. The average number of wells in operation fell to 5,637 in 2025, representing a 27% decrease compared to 2021.
Additionally, productivity per well is beginning to show signs of deterioration. Average production decreased to 419 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), compared to 466 boe/d in 2024. This indicator suggests progressive erosion in the performance of existing assets.
Lower Operational Intensity and Regional Risk
Drilling intensity has also decreased notably. The number of active rigs fell to 63 in 2025, down from 94 in 2023, while meters drilled were reduced by more than 50% over the same period.
At the geographic level, a growing concentration risk is emerging. The northern region continues to dominate production, while activity in the south, historically important, has decreased significantly, complicating the sustainability of the national production system.
Upstream Sector: Production in Decline
Crude oil production registered a 7% decline in 2025, driven primarily by the natural depletion of significant fields such as Zaap, Quesqui, Tupilco Profundo, Xanab, and Pokche.
These factors are compounded by delays in offshore infrastructure installation, adverse weather conditions that affected offshore operations, and longer completion times in complex wells characterized by extreme pressure and temperature conditions.
Source: https://www.spglobal.com/
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