The European natural gas market overcame the stress test posed by the near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted nearly 20% of global LNG trade. The key was the rapid activation of European dependence on US LNG, complemented by increased supplies from Algeria and Nigeria. However, the episode reveals a structural transformation that redefines the continent’s energy geopolitics.
Since the conflict began on February 28, average gas prices in Europe have risen by approximately 10 euros per MWh, a 31% increase, according to LSEG data. The total gas expenditure of the 27 EU countries increased by 48% during the crisis. Despite this, markets did not fragment, and infrastructure—pipelines, LNG terminals, and interconnectors—functioned without severe bottlenecks.
European Dependence on US LNG
LNG shipments from the United States currently account for approximately 60% of total European liquefied gas imports. If Europe completes the phased elimination of Russian gas as planned, that figure could climb to 80% by 2030, according to Reuters Open Interest analysis published this Tuesday. This concentration on a single supplier creates unprecedented political and commercial exposure.
Paradoxically, Russian LNG imports increased by 17% between January and May 2026 compared to the previous year, according to preliminary LSEG data. This figure underscores the tension between political goals of energy decoupling and the reality of existing supply contracts.
Qatar Prioritizes Asia
QatarEnergy, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, could redirect a growing proportion of its exports to higher-growth Asian markets, according to Reuters analysis. This reorientation would reduce the supply available to Europe precisely when the continent seeks to diversify its sources and reduce its European dependence on US LNG.
The combination of a Qatar weakened by damage to Ras Laffan—which lost 17% of its capacity for five years, according to the company’s own estimates—and expanding Asian demand accelerates the scenario of supply concentration in Washington’s hands. For European energy security, this amounts to replacing one political dependency with another.
Prices and Scenarios for the European Market
The analysis projects three scenarios for European wholesale gas prices: in the energy transition scenario, prices would average around 25 euros/MWh, a level that would keep gas-fired generation competitive; in the current trends scenario, prices would hover around 35 euros/MWh; and in a rapid decarbonization scenario, prices could escalate to 65 euros/MWh, accelerating gas substitution in almost all sectors.
If liquefied natural gas prices remain structurally high due to global competition and persistent geopolitical disruptions, Europe’s energy transition could accelerate regardless of climate policy objectives, according to Reuters. Total EU gas demand could fall by 30% by 2030, with a reduction of approximately 1,700 TWh annually.
Outlook: Fragile Resilience
European dependence on US LNG is consolidating as the new axis of continental energy policy, conditioning the bloc’s investment decisions and trade agreements for the next decade.
Analyst consensus suggests that Europe passed the Hormuz test thanks to favorable conditions: high reserves, a mild winter, and the immediate availability of US LNG. But demonstrated resilience does not equate to structural security. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and other bodies warn that a second simultaneous shock—for example, a disruption of Algerian supply combined with a severe winter—could exceed the market’s absorption capacity.
The Hormuz episode will force European energy planners to review their diversification models, focusing on increasing regasification capacity, signing contracts with African and Mediterranean suppliers, and accelerating the deployment of renewable energies as a lever to reduce exposure to imported gas.
Sources
- Reuters Open Interest – The Hormuz shock didn’t break Europe’s gas market. Time might
- International Energy Agency (IEA) – Gas Market Outlook 2026
- LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) – lseg.com
- S&P Global Commodity Insights – spglobal.com/commodityinsights
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