The United Arab Emirates has officially announced its withdrawal from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OAPEC, in a decision that reinforces Abu Dhabi’s shift toward a more autonomous energy policy. The move follows its withdrawal from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, two groups that directly influence the coordination of global oil supply.
The OAPEC General Secretariat confirmed it received a letter from the Emirati Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, notifying the country’s exit effective May 1, 2026. The communication was addressed to the Libyan Minister of Oil and Gas, Khalifa Rajab Abdul Sadiq, who chairs the current session of the organization’s Council of Ministers.
An exit with economic and strategic implications
Although OAPEC does not set production quotas for its members, the withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates carries significant energy implications. The country is moving away from a regional framework of oil cooperation at a time when it seeks to manage its production capacity, exports, and commercial positioning with greater room for maneuver.
Furthermore, the decision comes after months of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and accumulated differences with Saudi Arabia within the regional oil landscape. Abu Dhabi has sought to reduce its exposure to collective policies it does not fully control, especially as it increases its pumping capacity and strengthens ADNOC as the core of its energy strategy.
ADNOC and the pressure to increase production
Moreover, the exit from the oil blocs coincides with ADNOC’s plan to increase its capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027. This goal is part of an investment strategy that includes $150 billion in capital expenditure to accelerate the country’s energy growth.
The key point is that OPEC quotas limited the full utilization of that capacity. With the withdrawal from OPEC+, the United Arab Emirates gains flexibility to increase production when market conditions allow. In the case of OAPEC, the exit does not change volumes immediately, but it does send a clear political signal: Abu Dhabi wants to define its oil policy by its own rules.
OAPEC loses a major partner
Likewise, OAPEC highlighted the role of the United Arab Emirates during its membership period and its contribution to Arab cooperation in oil and energy. The organization stated it will continue to promote strategic programs and initiatives to improve integration among its member states.
OAPEC was founded in 1968 to promote cooperation among Arab oil-exporting countries. Unlike OPEC, its function focuses more on technical, institutional, and regional coordination than on managing quotas or production cuts. Therefore, the immediate impact on global supply will be limited.
Greater autonomy before the demand peak
However, the underlying interpretation points to the long-term timeline. With global oil demand approaching a stage of slower growth, the United Arab Emirates seeks to monetize its reserves while a broad commercial window for crude still exists.
At the same time, the country reaches this stage with a more diversified economy. Non-oil sectors represent more than 70% of GDP, and its sovereign wealth funds manage nearly $3 trillion in assets. This financial cushion allows it to prioritize market share, global investment, and economic growth over relying solely on high oil prices.
What changes for the oil market
In practical terms, the United Arab Emirates’ exit from OAPEC does not imply an automatic increase in supply. Nonetheless, it does strengthen the expectation of a more aggressive strategy to capture market share when the geopolitical environment stabilizes.
For consumers, higher Emirati production could add downward pressure on prices if it coincides with moderate demand. For other producers, the move raises a more uncomfortable question: to what extent will major exporters continue to accept collective restrictions when their national expansion plans require more flexibility.
Source: Oil Price
Photo: Shutterstock