Uniper warned that the spot price in Northeast Asia closed on June 2 at $18.20/MMBtu, while European TTF traded at $16.35/MMBtu. The gap between these two benchmarks—favorable to Asia—is redirecting flexible cargoes that would otherwise have reached European regasification terminals.
Hormuz Closure Makes Spot LNG a Scarce Commodity
The JKM—the benchmark for deliveries to Japan, Korea, China, and Taiwan—traded at $25.30/MMBtu in the weeks following the start of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran in March 2026, a level more than 75% higher than the previous year. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global LNG transits, remains partially blocked, leaving South Asian countries highly dependent on LNG from the Persian Gulf, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, without supply.
20% of the world’s LNG must pass through that bottleneck, and due to the conflict, that flow is blocked. This has led to price spikes because all countries that were receiving LNG from the Gulf need to replace it, especially in Asia.
For short-term cargoes in spot markets, Europe directly competes with all Asian countries, and this has significantly driven up prices.
An Uniper executive stated in a market analysis published in May 2026.
Dispute over Asia LNG in Spot Cargoes
Miaoru Huang, Wood Mackenzie’s Head of Gas and LNG Research for Asia-Pacific, warned in March that “a sustained premium is needed to attract Atlantic Basin cargoes from Europe to Asia.” The premium exists: with JKM nearly $2/MMBtu above TTF, LNG sellers with flexible cargoes are predominantly choosing Asia as their destination. Europe, with only 38% of its gas storage capacity filled according to June market data, faces the risk of entering winter 2026–2027 with insufficient reserves.
Kpler analysts project that average spot prices in Asia will remain around $17/MMBtu during the Northern Hemisphere summer, a level more than $5 higher than the average for summer 2025. India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh—price-sensitive buyers—have already reduced their spot imports, unable to compete with bids from Japan, South Korea, and China.
Impact on Oil-Indexed Contracts and Second Wave Risk
In the context of the Uniper LNG Asia Europe market, Wood Mackenzie warned that oil-indexed LNG contracts will pass on the impact of the price increase with a three-month delay, meaning that import costs for Asian buyers with long-term contracts will continue to rise from June 2026. This contractual increase would overlap with already high spot prices, generating a second wave of financial pressure on utilities in the region.
The Uniper LNG Asia Europe market dynamic is worsening: Energy Intelligence warned on June 2 that if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen before early July, Asian spot markets would receive 10 to 15 fewer cargoes per month, a volume that typically competes directly with Europe.
The analysis of Hormuz’s impact on LNG markets and its implications for the global midstream can be followed in Inspenet’s Midstream hub. Broader implications for the European energy balance are addressed in Inspenet’s Energy hub.
Sources: Energy Intelligence – World Gas Intelligence | Wood Mackenzie – ME Conflict Impact on NEA Gas Market | OilPrice.com – Uniper Warns Gas Shortage
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