QatarEnergy is ready to resume LNG production at its Ras Laffan complex within days and could reach full capacity for undamaged facilities in approximately one month, according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters. However, two of the 14 liquefaction trains damaged by Iranian attacks will require years of repair, as stated by the company’s CEO in a March interview.
The real bottleneck is not productive but logistical: shipping companies demand security guarantees before resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz, including confirmation of mine clearance along the routes, which could delay the flow of tankers for several additional weeks.
LNG Production in Ras Laffan
Of the 14 liquefaction trains at the Ras Laffan complex, 12 remain structurally intact. The two damaged trains represent 17% of Qatar’s total export capacity, making the country the world’s second-largest LNG exporter with a substantial and prolonged reduction in its supply. A gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant was also affected by the attacks.
According to the source consulted by Reuters, “the challenge lies in how quickly we can bring in ships and load them once the strait reopens.” The same source described the situation as “more of a logistical and transportation issue than a production one.”
Despite the preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran to resolve the conflict and reopen Hormuz, only a handful of LNG tankers have been able to navigate the strait since the war began in late February. Uncertainty over mine clearance remains the main delaying factor.
Structural Damage: Estimated Repair in Years
The distinction between QatarEnergy’s LNG production and structural repair is fundamental to assessing the real impact. While LNG production from the 12 intact trains can normalize in weeks, the two damaged units represent multi-billion dollar capital investments with engineering timelines that QatarEnergy’s CEO himself placed at “several years.”
A large-scale LNG liquefaction train has a construction cost ranging from $2 billion to $4 billion and requires three to five years to complete its reconstruction from basic engineering to commissioning, according to industry standards for liquefied natural gas. Repairing damaged facilities can be even more complex than new construction.
Impact on Global LNG Markets
Qatar supplies approximately 20% of the global LNG trade. The prolonged loss of 17% of its export capacity—combined with navigation restrictions in Hormuz—creates a structural imbalance in Asian and European gas markets. Long-term contracts with buyers in Japan, South Korea, and India are most exposed to renegotiations or force majeure clauses.
For global energy security, the scenario implies sustained upward pressure on LNG prices during the repair period. Spot markets are already absorbing part of the geopolitical risk premium generated by the combination of physical damage in Ras Laffan and uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Perspectives and next steps
QatarEnergy’s LNG production roadmap contemplates two distinct phases: first, the normalization of exports from the 12 operational trains once shipping traffic in Hormuz stabilizes; second, the execution of a multi-year repair program for the two damaged trains. Coordination with political risk insurers and international technical partners will determine the actual pace of this second phase.
The incident repositions the debate on the diversification of export routes for Persian Gulf LNG, a structural vulnerability that organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) have repeatedly highlighted as a systemic risk factor for global energy balances.
Sources:
- Reuters – QatarEnergy ready to restart LNG output, reach current capacity in one month
- Financial Times – Hormuz Context and Energy Markets
- International Energy Agency (IEA) – iea.org
- S&P Global Commodity Insights – spglobal.com/commodityinsights
Photo: Shutterstock
