Tension escalated this June 10 following military operations between the U.S. and Iran that are keeping crude oil traffic restricted in Hormuz. Brent rose to US$92.38/bbl and WTI reached US$89.30/bbl, three-month highs.
Oil prices respond to tension
Brent traded at US$92.38/bbl at Tuesday’s close, a 4.2% increase over five sessions, while WTI advanced to US$89.30/bbl. The tension is reflected in concrete data: at least 14 tankers are awaiting transit authorization in Omani waters.
Daily transit volume fell from 19 million barrels to approximately 14 million in the last seven days, according to satellite tracking data. This 26% reduction is equivalent to removing more from the market than Nigeria or Kazakhstan produce in a day.
Timeline of the U.S.-Iran conflict in the strait
Hostilities intensified on June 7 when Iranian forces intercepted two Greek-flagged vessels in international waters, alleging violations of Tehran’s maritime supervision framework. Washington responded with Fifth Fleet movements and additional sanctions on the Iranian energy sector.
Iran produces approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, of which nearly 85% transits through Hormuz to Asian buyers.
The market is pricing in a partial but prolonged disruption, not a total closure. That explains the relative moderation of the price hike.
noted an energy market analyst from Citigroup quoted by Reuters on June 10, 2026.
Partial recovery of traffic and its limits
Shipping sources confirm a partial recovery of traffic since the weekend, with 60% of usual transits completed. Insurers raised war risk premiums up to 0.75% of the vessel’s value per voyage, the highest level since 2019.
Tension in Hormuz also affects liquefied gas: Qatar has activated partial alternative routes to the Arabian Sea, with significantly higher logistical costs. This is linked to Qatar LNG exports following the Hormuz crisis, where Chinese and Japanese buyers are renegotiating delivery terms.
Risk premium and crude oil options
The Brent call skew for July shows an 18% premium over equivalent puts, a sign that traders anticipate greater upside risk. Hedge funds increased net long positions in WTI by 47,000 contracts during the week of June 3–7.
As long as there is no verifiable diplomatic agreement, every incident in the strait will be a catalyst for volatility.
warned the head of commodities analysis at Goldman Sachs in a note to clients on Monday.
OPEC+ position on the Hormuz crisis
OPEC+ will hold an emergency meeting on June 14 to evaluate whether to activate Saudi spare capacity, estimated at 2.5 million bpd. Riyadh has indicated a willingness to compensate for Iranian disruptions, although physical transfer also depends on transit through Hormuz.
The Iranian tariff proposal in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be rejected by Asian importers, who consider it a violation of international maritime law. The Hormuz oil tension keeps the market on high alert while OECD inventories hit historic lows.
Freight brokers are recording increases of up to 40% in Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates for Persian Gulf routes to Asia, a direct reflection of the uncertainty in Hormuz. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index touched 1,450 points on June 9, a level not seen since the 2022 peaks during the Ukrainian conflict.
Fountain
