Disruptions in the Middle East are increasing pressure on global supply chains for hydrogen, fertilizers and derived industrial products, according to the latest Global Hydrogen Report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The organization notes that the region accounts for approximately one-sixth of global hydrogen production. Furthermore, it plays a crucial role in the export of ammonia, urea, methanol, and refined products. Therefore, any disruption to production, maritime transport, or foreign trade can quickly impact agriculture, refining, and the chemical industry.
Fertilizers under pressure
In this scenario, fertilizers appear as one of the most sensitive points; the IEA indicates that international urea prices doubled between January and May 2026, driven by supply disruptions, higher natural gas costs, and export restrictions.
For countries dependent on imported fertilizers, this volatility creates an additional risk: less stability in agricultural costs and greater pressure on food security. It also demonstrates that hydrogen is no longer just an energy issue, but an industrial component linked to food, fuels, and raw materials.
Clean hydrogen is growing, but it’s not yet scaling up
Global demand for hydrogen exceeded 100 million tons for the first time in 2025; against that figure, low-emission hydrogen production grew by 20% and approached one million tons.
Although the progress is a positive sign, the scale remains small. The IEA forecasts that in 2026 this production will reach a new record and exceed 1% of the global total for the first time. Even so, the current pace is far from what is needed to meet the 2030 targets.
Costs, demand and infrastructure are holding back projects
The report identifies persistent obstacles, high production costs, uncertain demand, complex regulations, and insufficient infrastructure. These factors are delaying investments and reducing the project pipeline.
Projects announced for 2030 fell by nearly 25% over the past year, to 27 million tons. Those with final investment decisions or a high probability of operation dropped from 10 million to just over 6 million.
China dominates electrolyzers
China maintained a dominant position in electrolyzers, accounting for around 75% of new installations in 2025. Thanks to this push, global installed capacity doubled to 4 gigawatts.
However, the IEA also observes signs of slower momentum in new investment decisions for electrolysis. Progress continues in Europe, the United States, India, and Japan, but regulatory uncertainty and a lack of firm contracts remain a concern.
Africa appears as a long-term opportunity
Africa has abundant renewable resources to produce low-emission hydrogen on a large scale. Today, the continent produces around 6,000 tons annually, and none of the 34 projects planned for 2030 have received a final investment decision.
The IEA believes that hydrogen development could support local fertilizers, green steel, and new industrial chains. To achieve this, financing, clear demand, and stable policies will be needed.
Source: Solarquarter
Photo: Shutterstock
