The outlook for the global energy market remains uncertain, with analysts and consultants warning OPEC+ that the operational consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could extend until the end of 2026, even if the strategic shipping lane reopens in the short term.
According to experts who participated in a technical meeting held in Vienna, the recovery of oil and gas supplies will require several months due to the logistical complexity accumulated after the conflict that continues to disrupt energy flows in the Middle East.
The operational recovery will be gradual
The Strait of Hormuz has historically been one of the most important energy corridors on the planet. Before the conflict, approximately 20% of the world’s traded oil and gas passed through this maritime route.
However, the effective closure of the border crossing following the outbreak of war between Iran and the US-Israeli alliance caused a major disruption to energy supply chains. As a result, markets saw significant increases in the prices of fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Experts indicated that the reopening of the strait would not imply an immediate return to normalcy; the reactivation of exports, logistics contracts, maritime insurance, and port operations could take several months.
OPEC analyzes scenarios for the oil market
During the technical meeting organized by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, several consultants presented assessments on the evolution of global hydrocarbon supply and demand.
Among the participating firms were S&P Global, FGE NexantECA, Vortexa, Kpler and Energy Aspects, companies recognized for their analysis of international crude oil trade and energy markets.
Attendees indicated that the shared projections point to a gradual recovery in supply, a scenario that will require OPEC+ to continue carefully monitoring market conditions before making any new production decisions.
Adnoc anticipates longer-lasting effects
The conclusions presented in Vienna coincide with recent statements by the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), Sultan Al Jaber, who maintained that oil flows from the Middle East could take until 2027 to fully recover to their pre-conflict levels.
This view reflects the existing concern among energy producers, marketers, and consumers about the impact that a prolonged disruption can have on the stability of the global market.
Likewise, experts believe that price volatility will continue to depend on geopolitical developments in the region and the ability of major producers to compensate for supply constraints.
Upcoming OPEC+ decisions
The OPEC Economic Commission will continue to assess market conditions on behalf of member countries ahead of the ministerial meeting scheduled for June 7.
The results of these meetings will be fundamental in determining how the alliance will respond to a scenario characterized by logistical constraints, inflationary pressures, and a slower-than-expected recovery for one of the world’s most important energy routes.
Source: Rigzone
Photo: Shutterstock
