Wood Mackenzie revealed in a new analysis that Chinese companies could control 39% of all global lithium extraction by 2030, further strengthening their influence over global supply chains for strategic battery minerals and the energy transition.
The report, prepared with data from the Lens Metals & Mining platform, shows a growing divergence between the countries where lithium is produced and the companies that own the mining assets.
The research particularly highlights Africa’s rapid growth as a new lithium-producing region, driven by foreign investments aimed at supplying tactical minerals.
Africa Emerges as a New Lithium Hub
According to Wood Mackenzie’s projections, Africa’s share of global lithium extraction will increase from virtually zero in 2020 to approximately 13% by 2030, becoming one of the largest structural shifts within the global market for critical minerals.
Regional growth is primarily driven by hard-rock projects developed in countries such as Ghana and Mali. However, the analysis warns that despite the increase in production, African companies would control barely 1% of global lithium production by the end of the decade.
Allan Pedersen explained that African mining expansion is almost entirely financed by Chinese capital, a situation that raises questions about value capture, industrial autonomy, and strategic control of future supply chains.
Chinese Companies Strengthen Global Presence
The report emphasizes that China has extended its influence far beyond its domestic production through acquisitions and stakes in international mining projects.
Notable operations include Huayou Cobalt’s proposed acquisition of Atlantic Lithium, as well as significant investments in the Ewoyaa project in Ghana and strategic assets in Australia and Mali.
Wood Mackenzie also recalled previous agreements such as Tianqi Lithium’s stake in the Greenbushes mine in Western Australia and Hainan Mining’s investment in the Bougouni project developed by Kodal Mining in Mali.
Australia and South America Lose Market Share
Australia, historically a global leader in lithium extraction, accounted for approximately 43% of global production in 2020.
South America also faces increasing competitive pressure. Although countries in the so-called “Lithium Triangle” continue to attract investment, the report notes that brine-based production presents greater technical challenges and slower development times compared to hard-rock projects.
Meanwhile, Australian companies would retain approximately 21% of global lithium ownership thanks to their domestic assets and international stakes.
Lithium Becomes a Geopolitical Challenge
The report reflects how lithium has become one of the most strategic resources for the global energy economy and the transition to low-carbon technologies.
As governments and manufacturers accelerate the electrification of transport and the deployment of energy storage, securing access to strategic minerals has become an industrial and geopolitical priority for multiple countries.
The increasing concentration of ownership around Chinese companies raises concerns in various Western economies, particularly regarding the potential impact on energy security, supply chains, and technological competitiveness in the coming decades.
Source and Photo: https://www.woodmac.com/