The future of heavy crude oil: Challenges and opportunities in an era of energy transition

Analyzing the future of heavy crude oil and its role in the energy transition.
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The future of heavy crude oil Challenges and opportunities in an era of energy transition.

Table of Contents

Introduction

Heavy crude oil has been a fundamental pillar of the global energy matrix for decades, playing an essential role in sectors such as power generation, fuel production and infrastructure materials. Despite its importance, concerns about the environmental impact of oil and pressures towards accelerated decarbonization have generated debates about the future of this resource.

In an era defined by energy transition, a major challenge looms: Is it possible to continue to use heavy crude responsibly without exacerbating greenhouse gas emissions? This article explores the challenges and opportunities for this valuable resource, highlighting how emerging technologies and policies could define its role in the coming years.

What is heavy crude oil?

Heavy crude oil or extra-heavy crude oil is a type of crude oil that does not flow easily. It is called “heavy” because its density or specific gravity is higher than that of light crude oil. Heavy crude oil has been defined as any liquefied petroleum with an API index of less than 20°, meaning that its relative density is greater than 0.933. This result of heavy crude oils is a degradation by being exposed to bacteria, water or air, as a consequence, the loss of its lighter fractions, leaving behind its heavier fractions.

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The role of heavy crude oil in the energy transition

Today, climate change is no longer a theory or a simple warning: it is a palpable reality. From governments and local organizations to financial sector giants, all have announced commitments to accelerate the energy transition in the coming years. This has forced the oil and gas industry, including heavy crude oil production, to look for ways to adapt.

Examples of this change are visible in the actions of large energy companies. In 2018, Norway’s Statoil decided to transform itself into Equinor, a name that better reflects its approach to sustainable energy. Similarly, Gas Natural Fenosa, a Spanish company, rebranded itself as Naturgy to show its commitment to cleaner energies.

But what about heavy crude oil, a type of oil that is denser and more complicated to process? Industries that rely on this resource, such as road construction and shipping, are under constant pressure to reduce their carbon footprint. New environmental regulations require these sectors to find cleaner ways to operate. For example, asphalt production, essential for roads, still relies on heavy crude oil, and changing that is not so simple.

Heavy crude oil in construction
Asphalt, a raw material for road construction.

Shipping is another key case: it still uses fuels derived from heavy crude oil, and although alternatives such as electric ships or more sustainable fuels are being developed, the transformation of this industry will be slow and costly.

In this context, innovative technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) are necessary. CCS “pollutant gas capture” technology: it traps carbon dioxide (CO₂) generated during the processing of heavy crude oil and stores it in subway geological formations, preventing it from reaching the atmosphere. It is like sealing harmful gases inside a secure subway vault, allowing the industry to continue using heavy crude in a more responsible way.

In summary, although heavy oil remains a difficult resource to replace in certain applications, the use of technological solutions such as CCS and a gradual approach to cleaner energies are helping to manage climate challenges. The transition will not be instantaneous, but with concrete examples and advanced technology, the industry can adapt and reduce the environmental impact of oil.

Classification of heavy crude oil

This type of oil is distinguished by its high density and high sulfur content; therefore, it is necessary to use more complex and energy-consuming refining techniques, increasing both operating costs and the environmental impact of the oil. The main types of current classification of this crude oil are described below.

Traditional classification

Traditionally, crude oil classification is based on API gravity:

  • Light crude: API gravity greater than 31.1°.
  • Medium crude: API gravity between 22.3° and 31.1°.
  • Heavy crude: API gravity between 10.1° and 22.3°. Heavy crude: API gravity between 10.1° and 22.3°.
  • Extra-heavy crude: API gravity less than 10.1°.

Updated classification

Today, the classification of heavy crude oil has evolved to include not only API gravity, but also its carbon footprint and the environmental effects associated with extraction and processing. This reflects a deeper understanding of the environmental impact of oil. For example, the processing of heavy crude oil generates more greenhouse gas emissions due to the energy-intensive methods required.

Environmental impact and challenges

Heavy oil extraction often damages ecosystems and can have negative consequences for local communities. However, significant progress has been made. Companies are adopting cleaner technologies, such as extraction methods that minimize environmental damage and advanced techniques to measure and reduce the carbon footprint.

The updated classification of heavy crude oil focuses not only on its density, but also on how its environmental impact can be better managed, with a focus on sustainability and efficiency.

Green hydrogen use in desulfurization

Desulfurization is a key process in refining, aimed at removing sulfur from heavy crude oil to comply with environmental regulations and reduce sulfur dioxide emissions. Traditionally, this process uses hydrogen obtained from fossil sources, which contributes to greenhouse gas emissions.

The incorporation of green hydrogen, produced by electrolysis of water using renewable energy, allows for more sustainable desulfurization. This approach not only reduces the emissions associated with the process, but also improves the quality of the refined products.

Advanced catalysts development

Catalysts are fundamental to chemical reactions in refining. Recent research has focused on designing more efficient and selective catalysts capable of operating at lower temperatures and pressures. These catalysts facilitate the conversion of heavy crudes into higher-value products, such as clean fuels, and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by optimizing reactions and reducing energy consumption.

Conversion of heavy crudes into cleaner products

The industry has adopted technologies such as hydrocracking and delayed coking to transform heavy crude oil into lighter, higher quality products. Hydrocracking uses hydrogen and catalysts to break down heavy molecules, producing cleaner fuels. Delayed coking converts heavy residues into valuable products and petroleum coke, reducing waste generation and improving the energy efficiency of the refining process.

Recent statistics

According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the implementation of advanced refining technologies has contributed to a 10% decrease in CO₂ emissions per barrel processed in the last decade. In addition, a 15% improvement in energy efficiency has been observed in refineries adopting these innovations.

These technological advances reduce the environmental impact of heavy crude oil, and increase its economic viability in a market increasingly regulated by climate concerns.

Geopolitics and energy security related to heavy crude oil

Heavy crude oil plays a crucial role in geopolitics and global energy security due to its concentration in strategic regions and the challenges associated with its production and refining.

Reserves and production in strategic regions

The main heavy crude oil reserves are located in:

  • Venezuela: It has the largest reserves of heavy and extra-heavy crude oil, especially in the Orinoco Oil Belt. However, production has decreased significantly in the last decade due to its oil policy and internal problems.
  • Canada: It has vast reserves in the Alberta oil sands. In 2023, Canada produced approximately 4.5 million barrels per day, consolidating its position as one of the world’s leading producers of heavy crude oil.
Heavy crude oil in Canada
Aerial image of Alberta Tar Sands, Alberta, Canada.

Impact on energy policies and global security

The concentration of heavy crude oil in these regions influences energy policies and global security:

  • Import dependence: Countries such as the United States have historically depended on Venezuelan and Canadian heavy crude oil to supply their refineries designed to process this type of oil. Sanctions against Venezuela and environmental restrictions in Canada have led to the search for alternative sources, affecting energy security.
  • Energy diversification: The transition to cleaner energy has led consuming countries to reduce their dependence on heavy crude oil due to its high carbon content. However, existing infrastructure and the demand for downstream products make a rapid transition difficult.

Challenges for exporting countries

Exporting nations face strategic dilemmas:

  • Economic diversification: Economies such as Venezuela’s are highly dependent on heavy oil exports. Price volatility and international sanctions highlight the need to diversify their economies to reduce dependence on this resource.
  • Infrastructure investments: The production and refining of heavy crude oil require significant investments in infrastructure and technology to meet environmental standards and improve efficiency. Financial and political constraints may limit these investments.

Environmental and energy security considerations

The production and use of heavy crude oil present environmental challenges:

  • Greenhouse gas emissions: The extraction and refining of heavy crude oil generate more emissions compared to light crudes, which complicates efforts to reduce the carbon footprint.
  • Energy security: Dependence on limited sources of heavy crude oil can compromise energy security in the event of supply disruptions. Diversification of sources and investment in alternative energies are essential to mitigate these risks. Heavy oil is a key component of the global energy matrix, but its concentration in specific regions and the associated environmental challenges require balanced strategies that consider energy security, environmental sustainability and economic stability.

Economic and environmental aspects

Heavy crude oil presents significant economic and environmental challenges due to its intrinsic characteristics and the current regulatory context. The key issues are detailed below:

Economic costs influenced by environmental policies

Stricter environmental policies have led refineries to invest in clean technologies to comply with current regulations. These retrofits, although costly initially, can pay off in the long run by improving operational efficiency and reducing penalties for non-compliance. For example, the implementation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems in refineries has been shown to significantly reduce CO₂ emissions, aligning with sustainability goals.

Environmental impact and comparison with light crude oils

Heavy crude oil generates higher greenhouse gas emissions during extraction and refining than light crude oil. This is due to more energy-intensive processes and the high content of impurities, such as sulfur. According to a Greenpeace report, pollution from burning fossil fuels, including heavy crude oil, causes approximately 4.5 million deaths per year and costs $2.9 trillion annually worldwide.

Although heavy oil faces economic and environmental challenges, investments in clean technologies and adaptation to strict environmental policies can transform these obstacles into opportunities for a more sustainable and profitable operation.

Perspectivas futuras del petróleo crudo pesado

The future of heavy crude oil is influenced by a variety of factors, including climate policies, technological advances and energy market trends. Below are the key points and recent statistics that outline its outlook:

Climate policies and environmental regulations

Global climate policies are aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which has a direct impact on the production and use of crude oil due to its higher carbon intensity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) points out that the future of this resource will depend on the implementation of mitigation technologies and the stability of environmental regulations.

Technological innovation and sustainability

The development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies is crucial to reduce emissions associated with heavy crude oil. In addition, investment in sustainable refining projects and extraction methods with lower environmental impact is essential to maintain the relevance of this resource in the global energy matrix.

Global demand and production

In 2023, global crude oil production increased by 1%, reaching levels similar to those of 2010-2019. This growth was driven by countries such as the United States, Brazil and Iran, while OPEC implemented production cuts to stabilize the market.

Price outlook

The price of Brent oil has experienced significant fluctuations in recent months. As of November 8, 2024, a barrel of Brent stood at US$74.00, reflecting a decrease of 2.32% from the previous day. Projections for the coming years indicate a trend towards stability. According to Bankinter’s Analysis Department, the Brent price is expected to remain around 75 dollars per barrel in 2024 and 2025, with a possible decrease to 70 dollars in 2026.

Factors such as OPEC policies, global energy demand and geopolitical tensions will continue to influence the Brent price. It is essential to monitor these elements to understand the possible variations in the oil price in the near future.

Energy transition and competitiveness

The growing adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles is reducing demand for fossil fuels. However, heavy oil could remain relevant if energy companies continue to focus on projects that minimize emissions and maximize efficiency. The ability to adapt to new market demands and environmental regulations will determine its future.

The future of heavy oil is conditioned by the implementation of climate policies, technological advances in emissions mitigation and the industry’s ability to adapt to a changing energy matrix. Investment in sustainable technologies and the adoption of cleaner practices will be significant for its continuity in the global energy landscape.

Conclusions

Heavy crude oil remains a strategic resource in the era of energy transition, but its future is full of challenges. Technological innovation and sustainable policies will be key to its viability. As the world moves towards a cleaner energy model, it is important to understand how to manage this resource efficiently and responsibly.

The environmental impact of oil is significant and causes serious damage to marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Oil spills have been shown to cause water, soil and air pollution, affecting wildlife and human health. The extraction, transport and use of oil contribute significantly to climate change and environmental degradation.

The combination of technological advances and mitigation strategies, such as carbon capture and storage, will allow heavy oil to play a less damaging role in the environment. However, decisions made in the coming years will define whether this resource can adapt to a world increasingly focused on sustainability.

Below is the following video courtesy of Kimray Inc, for additional information on the subject.

YouTube video
Types of crude oil: Heavy vs light, sweet vs sour, and TAN count.

References

  1. Pulso energético: “El Papel del Petróleo y el Gas en la Transición Energética”
  2. Petro Punto: “Tecnologías emergentes en el refinado de Petróleo”
  3. Agencia Internacional de Energía: “Innovaciones tecnológicas y métodos de mitigación”
  4. Real Instituto Elcano: “Consideraciones ambientales y de seguridad energética”
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