The main OPEC+ oil producers they are preparing to keep their November production targets unchanged during the meeting scheduled for Sunday, two sources familiar with the talks told Reuters.
For now, however, no final decision has been made, the meeting will be held virtually and will bring together seven key members of the alliance: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman.
The meeting comes after several months in which OPEC+ gradually adjusted its production targets, by October, the group had decided to keep them stable, and now it may extend that strategy into November.
Oil production remains below targets
The crude oil supply situation will also weigh heavily in the talks, gulf producers have increased their exports following disruptions related to the conflict with Iran. Even so, many members continue to produce below their official targets.
The seven key producers of the OPEC+ they extracted around 25 million barrels per day in August, according to data from the organization. This figure represents an increase of 630,000 barrels per day compared to July.
Despite this recovery, production was still close to 5 million barrels per day below the levels recorded in February, before the disruptions associated with the conflict.
This difference between official quotas and the volume that actually reaches the market will be one of the elements to consider before making any new adjustments to production targets.
OPEC+ maintains additional cuts until 2026
During September, the alliance completed the phase-out of a 1.65 million barrel per day supply cut that had originally been agreed upon in 2023.
However, another layer of cuts of around 2 million barrels per day is still in place, these restrictions affect most members and are scheduled to last until the end of 2026.
For this reason, the next decisions of OPEC+ will depend both on the evolution of oil market as well as the actual capacity of its members to increase production.
Production quotas for 2027 are gaining importance
While evaluating its short-term objectives, OPEC+ is also working on the foundations that will serve to define future production quotas.
The group must complete a review of its members’ production capacity before setting the benchmark figures for 2027. These benchmarks will then be used to set quotas and determine how the remaining cuts will be applied.
The US consulting firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton plans to present a report soon on the production capacity of the alliance members.
Thus, the discussion about November is taking place at the same time as OPEC+ prepares for broader negotiations on the distribution of the oil production among its members from 2027 onwards.
The JMMC will analyze the oil market
The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is also scheduled to meet on Sunday, this body reviews market conditions and compliance levels among alliance members, although it does not directly make decisions on production policy.
For now, sources indicate that oil production targets for November will remain unchanged, the final decision, however, will depend on the discussions held by producers during the meeting.
Source: Reuters
Photo: Shutterstock
