The latest report from the International Energy Agency confirms an abrupt shift in the balance of the global natural gas market. The escalating conflict in the Middle East has disrupted trade flows, affecting both the availability and price stability of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Approximately 20% of the world’s LNG supply has been taken out of the market . This disruption is directly linked to restrictions on strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz , one of the world’s main energy corridors.
This scenario has reversed the stabilization trend observed at the end of 2025, delaying the expected expansion of global LNG supply and prolonging uncertainty in international energy markets.
Logistical disruptions increase volatility
The de facto closure of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has caused a significant disruption to the global LNG supply chain. This situation has reduced the immediate availability of the fuel in key markets.
As a result, natural gas prices in Asia and Europe reached their highest levels since January 2023 in March. Volatility intensified due to uncertainty about the duration of the disruptions.
This environment has directly impacted the energy planning of importing countries, forcing adjustments in contracts and short-term supply strategies.
Fall in supply and adjustment in demand
Global LNG production fell by 8% year-on-year, driven primarily by reduced exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Other producers have not been able to fully offset this decline.
Meanwhile, demand for natural gas has weakened in core regions. In Europe, consumption fell by around 4% year-on-year in March, influenced by milder temperatures and increased renewable energy generation.
In Asia, several countries have implemented fuel substitution measures and energy efficiency policies to mitigate the impact of high prices.
Delay in the expansion of global supply
Damage to liquefaction infrastructure, particularly in Qatar, is impacting projected growth in global LNG supply. This will have direct consequences for market equilibrium in the medium term.
The International Energy Agency estimates that the global expansion of LNG could be delayed by at least two years compared to previous forecasts.
As a result, a cumulative loss of approximately 120 billion cubic meters is projected between 2026 and 2030 , which will prolong tight market conditions.
Energy security at the heart of the debate
The current crisis highlights the vulnerability of global energy supply chains to geopolitical events. Dependence on critical routes remains a structural risk factor.
The report highlights the need to strengthen energy security through sustained investments across the entire LNG value chain, from production to regasification.
It also underlines the importance of diversifying supply contracts and fostering international cooperation to mitigate future episodes of volatility.
Source: https://www.iea.org/
Photo: Shutterstock