Oil prices rise after attacks near the Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices rose again on Tuesday after new reports of attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz reignited concerns in the oil market . The area is one of the most sensitive routes for the global transport of crude oil and liquefied natural gas.
Specifically, Brent crude futures rose 61 cents to $72.60 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 49 cents to $69.04 a barrel at 11:40 GMT. The movement showed a moderate reaction, though enough to bring geopolitical risk back to the forefront of trading.
The Strait of Hormuz is putting pressure on the oil market again
The focus of tension was located near the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime passage through which about a fifth of the world's daily oil and LNG supply flowed before the start of the war with Iran. Therefore, any incident in the area usually has an immediate impact on prices.
A Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker were damaged following reports of missile fire attributed to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. While the extent of the attack is still influencing market sentiment, traders are already pricing in a risk premium.
Tensions between Iran and the United States increase uncertainty
Negotiations between Tehran and Washington came under pressure after renewed threats from the United States. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that there would be no final talks if the US government's military warnings continued.
In this context, investors are watching to see if the incident remains isolated or escalates into something more serious. A disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could affect energy flows, raise logistics costs, and push oil prices to new highs.
Analysts are eyeing $75 as the next target.
Meanwhile, Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, noted that the attack reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium into the price of oil. According to his analysis, further escalation could push Brent crude toward $75 a barrel before targeting the $80 mark.
However, the current surge remains smaller than in previous episodes of tension in the Middle East. The oil market appears to be cautiously assessing the severity of the attack, the diplomatic response, and the likelihood that energy transport will continue without major disruptions.
Saudi Arabia is evaluating alternative routes
Saudi Arabia is considering expanding the capacity of its oil pipeline to the western Red Sea coast. This option would allow for the transport of more oil without relying on the Strait of Hormuz and would provide an additional outlet for the kingdom and some neighboring Gulf countries.
However, interest in Saudi crude in Asia remains limited. Even after the biggest price cut in more than two decades, some rival Gulf supplies continue to be cheaper for certain buyers.
Future supply may moderate prices
On the other hand, Société Générale forecasts that the oil market will move from deficit to surplus towards the end of 2026 and during 2027, as supply growth outpaces weaker demand.
In line with that view, the bank lowered its oil forecast to $75 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026 and an average of $73 in 2027. It also expects a gradual recovery in reserves, although with episodes of volatility as long as geopolitical risks persist.
Ukraine increases pressure on Russian energy transport
The maritime front was also affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine. The Kyiv military reported that Ukrainian drones attacked eight tankers belonging to Russia's so-called parallel fleet, used to transport fuel to Crimea and circumvent sanctions.
Thus, the price of oil is being supported by several sources of tension simultaneously. The market will continue to monitor the Strait of Hormuz, the negotiations between Iran and the United States, and any signs of a real disruption in crude oil shipments.
News of additional interest
Equinor accelerates new submarine developments in Norway
Equinor has awarded contracts worth approximately 6 billion Norwegian kroner to develop four subsea projects on Norway's continental shelf. The agreements were granted to TechnipFMC, OneSubsea, Ocean Installer, NOV, and Tenaris to supply equipment and install infrastructure for the development of the TWIN, Brime, Omega Sør, and Tyrihans Nord fields. Collectively, these projects could contribute between 130 and 220 million barrels of oil equivalent to the country's future production.
The company explained that this first phase is part of a broader plan to accelerate the development of dozens of subsea projects over the next few years. Its goal is to reduce time and costs through standardized processes and advance purchases of equipment with long lead times. For now, TWIN is the only project that has received approval from its partners, while the others will continue their evaluation and authorization process with the relevant authorities.
ADNOC secures LNG sales with INPEX until 2043
ADNOC has signed a 15-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchase agreement with Japan's INPEX to supply 1 million tons annually from the Ruwais LNG project. The agreement strengthens the energy relationship between the UAE and Japan and supports both companies' strategy to ensure a stable LNG supply to the Asian market. The project is expected to begin commercial operation in 2028.
The supply will come primarily from the Ruwais LNG plant, which will have a production capacity of 9.6 million tons per year. According to ADNOC, nearly 90% of that capacity is already committed through long-term contracts with customers in Asia and Europe. The facility will operate on clean energy and incorporate artificial intelligence tools and new technologies to improve operational efficiency and reduce emissions.
Saudi crude oil crosses the Strait of Hormuz again
Two supertankers carrying approximately 4 million barrels of Saudi crude are preparing to transit the Strait of Hormuz en route to Japan. The vessels, operated by Japanese companies, had been held up following restrictions on maritime traffic in the area. Their departure coincides with the gradual recovery of oil exports from the Persian Gulf after the preliminary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.
The move coincides with an increase in crude oil shipments through this strategic waterway, although maritime activity remains below normal levels. Saudi Arabia has already exported millions of barrels since mid-June, and the United Arab Emirates has also increased its shipments. Even so, several vessels continue to alter their routes or turn back due to security conditions and warnings issued in the area.
BluEnergies and TotalEnergies make progress in Liberia
BluEnergies reported that its exploration program with TotalEnergies in the Harper Basin, off the coast of Liberia, is progressing according to schedule. The work includes reprocessing over 6,000 square kilometers of 3D seismic data and conducting seabed surveys to improve the identification of potential deposits and define future drilling areas. The company indicated that the seismic reprocessing is now more than 50% complete.
In addition to seismic analysis, the project incorporates seabed mapping, geochemical sampling, and heat flow measurements to gain a more accurate understanding of the geological potential of blocks LB-26, LB-30, and LB-31. These activities will continue throughout 2026 and will help select the locations with the highest probability of success before initiating a drilling campaign.