The international oil market saw mixed movements due to recent US military operations in southern Iran. This situation interrupted the downward trend of previous days and pushed the price of Brent crude up more than two percent to $98.57 per barrel. Conversely, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded lower, settling at $92.24, reflecting a technical imbalance following the holiday closure in the US market.
Financial analysts point out that this mixed behavior reflects investors’ fears of a prolonged geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the final drafting of the peace agreement could be delayed for several days. This statement dampened expectations of an immediate resolution, reigniting risk premiums in contracts global energy supply.
The Strait of Hormuz and the bottleneck of maritime trade
The reactivation of maritime routes is the central focus of the diplomatic talks taking place in Doha, mediated by the Qatari government. Currently, restrictions imposed by Tehran are blocking almost a fifth of global shipping traffic, liquefied natural gas and oil. Although the current draft contemplates a cessation of hostilities and grants a period of sixty days for a final agreement, the trade offer will take time to stabilize.
According to financial sector reports from Saxo Bank, a gradual reopening of the strait implies that the global energy market will experience supply tensions over the coming months. Nikkei projections indicate that Iran will require a 30-day period for mine clearance in the affected area. Afterward, duty-free navigation and transit fees would be restored for vessels from all countries.
Similarly, recent maritime tracking data shows that three liquefied natural gas vessels crossed the canal bound for Pakistan, China, and India. A supertanker carrying Iraqi crude oil, which had been stranded since the start of hostilities, also managed to advance towards Asian territory.
Nuclear demands and geopolitical uncertainty
The negotiation landscape remains highly complex due to the disarmament conditions imposed by the White House. President Donald Trump reiterated the demand that the Iranian government hand over all of its enriched uranium for subsequent destruction. Market analysts warn that this condition increases the risk of the talks collapsing at the last minute, mirroring the failures of previous attempts.
Source: Reuter