Author: Ing. Euclides Quiñones, July 6, 2023.
Introduction
Amid growing concern about climate change and its consequences, global decarbonization has become one of the main goals for many countries. Carbon neutrality, which involves balancing greenhouse gas emissions with reductions and removals of the same amount of emissions, is seen as crucial to addressing global warming.
In this article, we will take an approach with a realistic prediction of the countries that could achieve carbon neutrality by the year 2030, considering economic factors, investment in renewable energy and the percentage of energy coming from alternative sources.
To keep global warming below 1.5°C, as required by the Paris Agreement, emissions need to be cut by around 45% by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050.
What is net zero emission and carbon neutrality?
- Net zero emission : It refers to the non-carbon emissions derived from the raw material or from the operations carried out during the execution of the services.
- Carbon neutrality: Defined as eliminating from the atmosphere the equivalent of the CO2 that we emit in our production processes, that is, achieving a balance between the emission of carbon and the absorption of this
It should be clarified that, in the context of climate change, when “carbon” is mentioned, it is generally referring to carbon dioxide (CO₂)
Countries that can achieve carbon neutrality
Sweden: Has demonstrated a strong commitment to sustainability and reducing carbon emissions. With a stable economy and heavy investment in renewable energy such as wind power and biomass, this country is well on its way to achieving carbon neutrality by 2030. In addition, the high proportion of energy coming from alternative sources supports their efforts in decarbonization.
Norway: Another leading Scandinavian country in the fight against climate change is Norway. With an economy fueled by the oil industry, Norway has taken significant steps to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and increase investment in renewable energy. His focus on hydropower and his commitment to electric vehicles indicate a path towards neutrality and commitment to global decarbonization.
Costa Rica: Although Costa Rica is a small country in terms of size and economy, it has shown remarkable leadership in promoting renewable energy. With more than 98% of its energy coming from clean sources, Costa Rica has the potential to achieve carbon neutrality before 2030. His focus on geothermal, solar, and wind power, along with strong policies, supports this prediction.
Germany: Germany has invested heavily in renewable energy in recent decades. Despite being a powerful and highly industrialized economy, Germany has demonstrated its commitment to the transition to a carbon-free future. Its focus on solar and wind energy, combined with strong emissions reduction policies, positions it as a promising candidate to achieve this.
Other countries headed for carbon neutrality
There are a number of small countries that have a special condition that will help them comply with neutralization, since they have a privileged geography that allows them to achieve carbon neutrality classification. These are Panama, Bhutan and Suriname, however, these particular cases do not correspond to a government initiative, but rather to the large coverage of native forests found in this area.
Suriname, with a population of less than 800,000, is 90% covered by forests, making it a massive carbon sink. Bhutan with a population of 500,000 inhabitants, in its constitution indicates that 60% of its territory must be considered forest.
The case of Panama is the most outstanding, because with its population of more than 5 million inhabitants it is carbon negative and 65% of its territory is forested.
Countries facing the challenges of global decarbonization by 2030
None of the four largest emitters of carbon dioxide have passed laws setting a goal of net zero emissions by 2050. Russia passed a law to achieve this in 2060. China and the US, for their part, have committed to signing documents on their positions to achieve net zero emissions in 2060 and 2050 respectively. India, the world’s fourth biggest polluter, has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2070.
China: While it has invested heavily in renewable energy and has set ambitious emissions reduction targets, its size and reliance on fossil fuels present significant challenges. Despite ongoing efforts, China still has a high proportion of energy from non-renewable sources. Although it is on the way to decarbonization, reaching it by 2030 may require a great deal of additional effort and I do see it as feasible.
United States: Although the United States has taken steps to address climate change, the lack of coherent climate policy and differences in approach among states present challenges on the path to carbon neutrality. While some states have made significant progress in adopting renewable energy, others are highly dependent on fossil fuels. Investment in clean energy could drive progress, but it will take more coordinated effort at the national level to achieve it, which is quite difficult.
Russia: Russia, as one of the world’s leading oil and gas producers, faces a significant challenge on its path to carbon neutrality. Although it has made progress in diversifying its energy matrix and has increased investment in renewable energy, the dependence on income from the hydrocarbons sector makes the transition to a low-carbon economy difficult. While breakthroughs are possible, Russia is less likely to catch up by 2030.
India: It is important to note that India has set ambitious targets in terms of renewable energy and emissions reduction. The country has set a goal of generating 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030 and has been working on expanding solar and wind power, as well as promoting electric mobility and reducing its dependence on fossil fuels. Despite these efforts, however, full decarbonization will take time and will require overcoming various challenges. As it remains one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases due to its growing population and current reliance on fossil fuels
Conclusion
Global decarbonization is a crucial goal to address climate change and its effects. While several countries are on track to be carbon neutral by 2030, it is important to recognize the challenges other countries face on their path to decarbonization. Factors such as the economy, investment in renewable energy and the percentage of energy coming from alternative sources play a fundamental role in a country’s ability to achieve this goal. If strong policies are put in place and investment in clean energy is promoted, more countries could join the fight for carbon neutrality, allowing for a more sustainable and pollution-free future.
Predictions of what may be achieved by 2030 are estimates and may be subject to change as new policies and technologies are developed.
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