Vitol has significantly changed its view on the long-term evolution of oil consumption. The largest independent oil trader now peaks global demand in the mid-2030s.
Supply for oil consumption
In contrast to its previous estimates, the adjustment responds mainly to the behavior of road transport. According to the analysis presented, the adoption of electric vehicles is progressing at a more moderate pace than expected, which sustains the use of liquid fuels for a longer period of time.
On the other hand, Vitol explains that other sectors maintain stable consumption patterns, without significant alterations in their contribution to total demand. This combination delays the turning point expected just a year ago.
In quantitative terms, the company projects that in 2040 global consumption will be approximately 5 million barrels per day higher than at present, confirming a sustained growth trajectory in the coming years.
The report also highlights that decarbonization strategies have lost prominence in the recent global agenda. Government priorities have shifted towards economic competitiveness and geopolitical positioning, directly influencing energy decisions.
From this perspective, the pace of emission reductions will depend less on formal targets and more on practical factors such as the availability, scalability and cost of energy alternatives. Economic viability emerges as a determining element.
Finally, Vitol’s analysis aligns with a broader trend in the energy sector. Various agencies and analysts have revised their forecasts, recognizing that growth in energy demand continues to support the use of traditional sources for several decades.
Source and photo: OilPrice