Recent NASA observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 have indicated a surprising decrease in its impact estimate for December 22, 2032, reducing the probability to 0.28% (1 in 360). The European Space Agency (ESA) has also participated in the analysis of this celestial body, which was initially estimated to have a 1.5% chance of colliding with Earth .
Updated data on asteroid 2024 YR4
Visibility conditions improved after the Full Moon phase, allowing astronomers to gather more precise information about the asteroid’s trajectory.
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has been instrumental in this analysis. According to experts, each night of observations allows for more precise determination of the asteroid’s path, reducing uncertainty about its possible trajectory.
Monitoring of 2024 YR4 will continue in the coming months. In March 2025, the James Webb Space Telescope will analyze the asteroid’s size and composition in greater detail. Also, the Near-Earth Object Surveyor (NEO Surveyor) mission, scheduled for launch in 2027, will contribute to the early detection of space objects in the infrared, complementing ground surveillance, according to Nasanet .
This updated data now indicates that there is a 99.72% chance that the asteroid will not hit Earth.
Planetary defense experts stress the importance of collecting ongoing data to accurately assess any potential threat. If future observations follow this trend, the probability of impact by 2024 YR4 could be further reduced or ruled out altogether.
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Source: CNEOS
Photo: shutterstock
