Petroleum investment in Norway reached its highest level in nominal terms in 2025, with a total of NOK 273 billion, including pipeline transport and pipeline transportation. This amount represents an increase of 8.7% over 2024, and consolidates three consecutive years of strong growth in the offshore energy sector.
This investment drive has been made possible by the tax incentive package approved by the Norwegian Parliament in 2020, which offered favorable tax conditions for all projects submitted before December 2022. As a result, numerous developments were approved just before the deadline, generating a cumulative effect that is now reflected in the figures.
A slowdown is forecast for 2026 and 2027
Projections for 2026 estimate investments of SEK 255 billion, a slight increase of 0.6% over the previous estimate for that year, but a drop of 6.6% from the peak in 2025. For 2027, an investment of SEK 201 billion is estimated, a sharper decline, but still the second highest initial estimate ever recorded in such statistics.
The projected decline is due to the completion of large developments approved in 2022, many of which will start production between 2025 and 2026, thus reducing the need for intensive investment in 2027. At the same time, the planned new developments are largely medium-sized or small discoveries or small discoveries, close to existing fields, which require less capital.
Active exploration and new discoveries
During 2025, 49 exploration wells were drilled, five more than in 2024, and 21 new discoveries were made, totaling 424 million barrels of oil equivalent, the best result since 2021, according to data from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate.
Investment in exploration and conceptual studies amounted to 33.7 billion kronor, 5.2% higher than in 2024, with growth in reservoir evaluation and conceptual planning activities. This dynamism suggests that Norway could approve new developments in the coming years, albeit on a smaller scale.
Perspectives: an industry adjusting to new times
Although Norway maintains a dominant position in offshore oil investment, the cycle of strong growth driven by fiscal benefits appears to be coming to an end. Investments for 2026 and 2027 show a normalization, where operating fields and exploratory activities continue to play a key role, while the development of large projects moderates.
As incentives disappear and production stabilizes, the Norwegian oil industry faces the challenge of sustaining its global relevance, adapting to an environment that balances energy exploitation and transition to more sustainable energy.
Source: Statistics Norway