Methanol has become one of the most watched alternative fuels in the shipping decarbonization agenda , but its mass adoption is still conditioned by cost and regulatory uncertainty.
This is the main conclusion of the latest episode of DNV’s Maritime Impact podcast, in which Eirik Nyhus talks to Marius Leisner, one of the authors on low-emission fuels.
For DNV, in the short term the key constraint is not so much physical availability, but the lack of sustained demand for low GHG footprint methanol from the maritime sector.
A fuel with ten years of experience at sea
Although it may seem a novelty today, methanol already has nearly a decade of experience as a marine fuel, with pioneers such as the Stena Germanica ferry and a first wave of chemical tankers using their own cargo as fuel.
Its initial appeal was not linked to CO₂, but to compliance with local environmental standards: methanol contains no sulfur, helps comply with MARPOL Annex VI and burns cleanly, with low NOx emissions and virtually no soot or particulates.
From a greenhouse gas perspective, methanol offers about 7% lower CO₂ tank-to-tank emissions than heavy fuel oil, but its well-to-tank performance depends entirely on the carbon source.
Ready technology and a fleet that already relies on methanol
In terms of technology, the industry is not starting from scratch. Two-stroke methanol engines have accumulated hundreds of thousands of hours of commercial operation, while manufacturers such as Wärtsilä and other suppliers already offer four-stroke solutions capable of burning methanol.
According to DNV, at the time of publication of its report, there were more than 80 methanol-capable vessels in service and some 370 on order, confirming that shipowners see methanol as a realistic pathway within their transition strategy.
Infrastructure is not an insurmountable obstacle either. Methanol is one of the most transported chemicals in the world, with storage capacity in more than a hundred ports and an emerging fleet of vessels dedicated to the storage of this fuel.
FuelEU vs. OMI NetZero: the policy that will define the adoption curve
Marius Leisner’s team modeled different low-emission methanol demand scenarios for the world fleet, combining capacity growth assumptions with different levels of fuel utilization.
Under a minimum framework, where only what is necessary to meet FuelEU Maritime is done, demand could be in the range of 5 to 12 million tons by 2040; with an ambitious NetZero Framework at IMO, methanol use could rapidly escalate to 20-50 million tons, and even more in a peak use scenario driven by strong incentives or cost competitiveness.
In this context, DNV’s message is that methanol is “ready” technologically and industrially, but needs a combination of competitive pricing, long-term contracts and consistent regulatory frameworks to unlock its full potential as a transitional and target fuel for international shipping.
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