According to projections by the government think tank NITI Aayog, coal consumption in India could more than double in the coming decades if the country maintains its current policy framework. Under the so-called Current Policy Scenario, demand would rise from 1,256 million tons in 2025 to 2,615 million tons in 2050.
Coal consumption will continue to grow under the current scenario
Estimates indicate that the use of coal use would continue to increase even up to 2070. This implies that, in absolute terms, coal-based generation would continue to expand despite the progress of the energy transition.
Although the share of coal in the energy mix would fall from 73% in 2025 to 47% in 2070, the total volume would remain high. This percentage decline would be driven by the accelerated growth of renewables such as solar and wind.
However, coal would continue to be critical to ensure reliable baseload power and competitive costs. The report argues that this source consolidates the stability of the electricity system while integrating intermittent clean sources.
In the scenario aligned with the 2070 net-zero emissions target, coal demand would also increase to 1,827 million tons in 2050. Thereafter, there would be a sharp drop to 161 million tons in 2070.
To manage the changing energy matrix, India will need to rapidly expand energy storage, flexible generation, and transmission and distribution networks. Without these reinforcements, security of supply could be compromised during demand peaks caused by heat waves or industrial growth.
Likewise, energy authorities have reiterated that coal will remain a centerpiece for at least the next two decades. The debate is no longer about eliminating it immediately, but about how to use it more sustainably while strengthening renewable infrastructure.
Source and photo: NITI Aayog