The International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly cut its oil demand growth forecast for 2026. In its most recent Oil Market Report, published on Thursday, the entity projects an increase of only 850,000 barrels per day (bpd), lower than the 930,000 bpd it estimated just a month ago.
This adjustment has had immediate effects on the markets, with international crude oil prices falling nearly 3% following the report, reflecting investors’ concerns about a possible cooling of global consumption.
All growth will come from developing countries
According to the IEA, oil demand growth this year will be concentrated exclusively in developing economies, with China as the main protagonist. The Asian nation will lead the increase in consumption, mainly through the momentum of its petrochemical industry. petrochemical industry.
Precisely, the petrochemicals sector will account for more than half of this year’s gains, a proportion that contrasts with the 2025 scenario, when transportation fuels dominated growth.
Divergent projections between IEA and OPEC
The IEA report also shows a relevant difference with the forecasts of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).. While the IEA estimates a growth of 850,000 bpd for 2026, OPEC maintains its forecast at 1.4 million bpd, which is considerably higher.
The oil organization, which groups major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran or Venezuela, also foresees a steady growth towards 2027, with an estimated increase of 1.3 million bpd.
Market supply surplus anticipated
In addition to the cut in demand, the IEA forecasts that the oil market will record a surplus in 2026. According to its estimates, world supply will increase by 2.4 million bpd, reaching a total of 108.6 million bpd.
This growth will be evenly distributed between OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ member countries, including major producers such as the United States, Canada and Brazil.
Temporary outages impacted supply in January
The IEA also adjusted its supply forecast for this year slightly downward due to adverse weather conditions. In January, global production fell by 1.2 million bpd following severe winter storms. severe winter storms storms that affected North America.
In addition, prolonged outages were reported at the Kazakhstan export terminal Kazakhstan’s export terminalIn addition, prolonged outages were reported at Kazakhstan’s export terminal, accentuated by a power outage at the country’s largest field, Tengiz. This situation generated punctual tensions in light crude oil flows in the Atlantic Basin.
Supply recovery will set the pace of the market
Despite the cuts and outages, the IEA anticipates a progressive recovery of supply in the coming months, as operations in the affected countries normalize. This combination of higher supply and lower demand creates a scenario in which prices could remain under downward pressure, unless new geopolitical factors emerge that alter the balance.
Source: International Energy Agency