The U.S. onshore market is preparing for a 2026 characterized by bifurcated oil and gas behavior. The latest data in Wood Mackenzie’s Lower 48 anticipates an operational decline in oil-focused activity and a technical expansion in natural gas-oriented areas, where capital efficiency and integration with LNG projects will shape the sector’s priorities.
Lower 48: Platform reduction and operational resilience
The number of active horizontal rigs in the Lower 48 will fall below 500, affected by price pressures near US$60/bbl and macroeconomic headwinds. Despite the decline, sustained improvement in efficiency metrics keeps productivity stable.
Operators such as Diamondback have increased the rate of wells per rig to 26 per year, while Expand Energy has halved the number of rigs needed in Haynesville without affecting volume.
This contraction in activity will generate deflationary effects on drilling and completion costs. According to Wood Mackenzie, more than 90% of the Lower 48 assets remain viable in CAPEX under this price threshold.
Reconfiguration of the mergers and acquisitions market
Transactions in the upstream upstream sector sector are showing a shift in focus towards gas assets. Growth in domestic demand, linkage to LNG export contracts and the search for physical hedges are the main drivers of international and private equity interest.
Haynesville is expected to exceed 16 bcf/d with infrastructure and liquidity support. Encap’s investment in Penn Energy for Marcellus assets confirms this trend, targeting formations with high pressure and volume potential.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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