Inspenet, April 12, 2023
The recent 2023 Annual Energy Report (AEO2023) from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA / US Energy Information Administration) indicates that US production of oil and other liquids is expected to increase by 10% between 2022 and 2050, driven by international demand and higher exports of finished products.
The report reflects laws and regulations adopted up to mid-November 2022, but does not assume new laws or regulations in the future. The reference case is also based on the assumption that Brent crude oil prices will reach $101 per barrel in 2022 dollars by 2050.
The other cases, which include a high oil and gas supply case, a low oil and gas supply case, a high oil price case, and a low oil price case, show a wide range of production levels. based on different assumptions for oil prices and ultimate recovery per well in each case.
In the high oil and gas supply case, US oil and other liquids production could increase 48% by 2050, while the low oil and gas supply case shows a 35% decline.
In the case of high oil prices, production will initially increase due to high prices, but production would start to fall after 2030 due to lower well productivity, the EIA said.
Eventually, this accelerated drilling trend would become unprofitable, at which point new drilling would stop, management reckons.
So, even in the case of high oil prices, which assumes that the price of Brent crude will reach $190 a barrel by 2050, US production would decline between 2030 and 2050, while production between 2022 and 2050 would grow by 27%. , much less than the 48% increase in the case of High Oil and Gas Supply, according to the EIA.
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