Brazil is heading towards a new investment cycle in oil and natural gas exploration, with projections that could reach US$1.2 billion between 2026 and 2033, according to official data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP).
By 2026, the estimated investment volume amounts to US$890 million, according to the Dynamic Panel for Forecasting Activities and Investments in the Exploration Phase, a business intelligence tool that consolidates strategic information from the Brazilian upstream sector.
From a financial perspective, these figures reflect a greater willingness to take exploratory risk on the part of operators, supported by existing contractual frameworks and the geological attractiveness of the Brazilian offshore basins.
Drilling wells: the main driver of exploratory capital
The drilling of exploratory wells will account for most of the financial resources planned for 2026. The ANP projects US$602 million for the drilling of 19 wells, which represents approximately 68 % of the total planned investments for that year.
If well testing and evaluation activities are included, the total amount could reach US$742 million, equivalent to 83% of the estimated exploration capital, demonstrating the high technical and economic weight of this phase of the upstream cycle.
From the technical-operational point of view, this strategy seeks to reduce geological uncertainty and accelerate commerciality decisions, a key factor to optimize return on investment (ROI) in high-cost exploration projects.
Offshore dominance: Eastern Margin leads in resource allocation
Analysis by operating environment shows a marked concentration of capital in offshore areas. By 2026, 96% of exploratory investments will go to offshore basins, consolidating the strategic relevance of the Brazilian coast.
The Eastern Margin basins, which include Campos, Santos, Espírito Santo and Pelotas, among others, will concentrate around US$658 million, representing 74% of the total planned, with the drilling of four key exploratory wells.
Meanwhile, the Equatorial Margin basins will receive investments estimated at US$196 million (22%), with a focus on drilling a new well and the completion of another well started in 2025, which reinforces the technical and geopolitical interest in this emerging region.
Terrestrial basins and strategic scope of the PNA Dynamic Panel
Onshore basins will have a smaller share in the 2026 exploration portfolio, with planned investments of US$34.5 million, distributed between new frontier basins and mature basins such as Recôncavo and Potiguar.
The ANP emphasizes that these projections are limited exclusively to the exploration phase, without including subsequent investments in development and production, and are subject to periodic updates according to the Exploration Work Plans (EWP) submitted by the companies.
Source: Government of Brazil
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