Starting this year, global LNG supply is on a sustained growth trajectory. Global production is estimated to reach between 460 and 484 million metric tons by 2026, according to projections by Kpler, Rystad Energy and ICIS. The entry into operation of new projects in the United States, Qatar, Canada and West Africa is shifting the market balance.
Expectation for global LNG supply
Facilities such as Golden Pass LNG, North Field and Greater Tortue Ahmeyim will contribute significant volumes. In addition, there will be increased activity at terminals such as Corpus Christi and Plaquemines in the United States, as well as LNG Canada. This expansion responds both to investment decisions postponed during the pandemic and to the urgency of energy diversification following the conflict in Ukraine.
Increased supply is putting downward pressure on LNG prices, particularly in Asian and European markets. Asian spot prices are forecast to be between $9.50 and $9.90 per million British thermal units, down from an average of $12.45 in 2025. In Europe, TTF prices will also adjust downward, stabilizing below $10 per mmBtu.
This moderate price dominance narrows gaps with the U.S. Henry Hub index, reducing export margins for U.S. producers just as feed gas costs are on the rise.
Asia, after a drop in demand during 2025 due to economic factors and competition from other fuels, will experience a recovery. Analysts at S&P Global Energy and Kpler anticipate a 4% to 7% increase in regional demand, led by China and India.
China is expected to increase its imports by 6 to 7 million tons in 2026. Although part of the new contracted supply will be destined for domestic consumption, it could also be re-exported given that the contracted volume exceeds 80 million tons. India, for its part, will add close to 5 million tons to its annual imports.
On the other hand, European importers are increasing their storage capacity in preparation for winter consumption peaks. The availability of larger global volumes allows Europe to negotiate with greater flexibility, securing long-term contracts on more competitive terms.
Source and photo: Reuters