TotalEnergies said it expects fourth-quarter 2025 results to be broadly in line with last year despite an annual decline of more than $10 per barrel in oil prices. The strength came from downstream, where European refining margins expanded by over 230% year-on-year, and from a 5% increase in oil and gas production.
The trading update indicates that segment cash flow will remain steady, supported by higher upstream volumes and a significant improvement in refining and petrochemicals. The company also expects to exceed its annual production guidance (+3%), closing the year at nearly +4%.
The Integrated LNG segment posted stable results versus Q3, driven by higher production following the restart of Ichthys LNG in Australia.
Ichthys LNG had been partially offline due to scheduled maintenance, temporarily impacting volumes available for the quarter.
Even so, the division is expected to record a year-on-year decline near 40%, pressured by lower spot prices and the normalization of technical availability after the turnaround. From an industrial standpoint, the LNG–TTF spread and the Asia–Europe balance continues to shape integrated gas commercialization strategies.
Sectoral context
TotalEnergies’ European refining margin indicator rose to $85.7 per ton in Q4, a 231% increase versus the same period in 2024. Market reconfiguration following sanctions on Russian products, coupled with adjustments in the middle-distillate balance, supported margin capture across the region.
CEO Patrick Pouyanné had already signaled a more favorable refining environment aligned with the new transatlantic flow of crude and products. Within this backdrop, the availability of conversion units and low operational downtime enabled maximum margin capture, particularly in gasoil.
Industrial reading in LNG, upstream and in the energy chain
In LNG, lower prices are combined with normalized technical availability at Ichthys. The company expects integrated LNG cash flow to remain in line with Q3, albeit below year-on-year levels. Industrially, the LNG–TTF spread and the Asia–Europe balance continue to influence trading strategies for integrated gas.
Upstream production volumes helped cushion the impact of cheaper crude. The divergence between Brent’s decline and the smaller drop in upstream results suggests improved volumetric capture and a more favorable crude quality mix.
Reading for the market
TotalEnergies diverged from the pattern seen across other supermajors toward year-end. ExxonMobil flagged upstream pressure from prices, while Shell and BP pointed to weaker petrochemicals, trading, and energy transition units. In this cycle, refining again played a compensating role, particularly in Europe, where logistics constraints and sanctions redistributed margins toward operators with complex refining systems.
Why it matters for the sector?
• European refining reaffirmed its ability to capture margin amid disruption.
• LNG retains a strategic role but remains exposed to regional spreads and technical availability.
• Upstream volume added resilience in a weak price environment, mitigating pressure on cash.
• Integrated energy portfolios showed industrial resilience against crude volatility.
• Supermajors enter 2026 with increasingly divergent profiles depending on portfolio mix.
Source: Reuters
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