In 2026, Brazil will face a decisive crossroads to position itself as a regional power in green hydrogen. Seven industrial megaprojects will have to define their final investment decision, with a combined value
Regulatory challenges and green hydrogen forecasting
Currently, the country has made progress with the approval of the Low Carbon Hydrogen Development Program (LCHDP), but still awaits its regulation. This lack of regulatory clarity is keeping developers on tenterhooks, who depend on concrete energy policies to close the cost gap with
On the other hand, the international level could tip the balance. The auctions of the H2Global program auctions – which will award contracts in 2026 – and the possible adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework in the maritime transport, open opportunities to export derivatives such as methanol and ammonia. In this sense, Brazil will have to strengthen its infrastructure and close deals with strategic buyers to capitalize on this global momentum.
A countdown marked by COP30
Likewise, the COP30 in Brazil is shaping up to be a key platform to establish commercial alliances. For industry analysts, this climate summit represents a unique window to consolidate long-term purchase commitments, an essential condition for investors to give the green light to projects.
Looking ahead to 2026, the challenge for Brazil will be to align its energy policy, regulatory frameworks and economic incentives with the demands of an emerging market that is still competing with cheaper alternatives. If it can mobilize strong demand and offer clear rules, the country will be able to consolidate its position as a strategic exporter of green hydrogen in Latin America.
The decision cannot be postponed: market conditions and the political clock are ticking. The transformation of current interest into concrete investment will depend on what happens in the next 12 months.
Source: Strategic Energy
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