Inspenet, June 23, 2023.
A study by researchers at the University of Reading in the UK revealed that due to global warming, on one of the world’s busiest flight paths, the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55%, while the moderate turbulence went from 70 to 96.1 hours, which represents an increase of 37%. Likewise, light turbulence increased by 17%.
The journal Geophysical Research Letters notes that “warmer air from CO2 emissions is increasing wind shear in jet streams, strengthening clear-air turbulence in the North Atlantic and around the world.”
They also noted that “clear-air turbulence is dangerous to aircraft and is expected to intensify in response to climate change . We found clear evidence of large increases around mid-latitudes in aircraft cruising altitudes.”
On this, PhD researcher and one of the study’s lead authors Mark Prosser noted: “Turbulence makes flights bumpy and can be dangerous at times. Airlines will need to start thinking about how they will handle the increased turbulence, as it costs the industry between $150 million and $500 million a year in the US alone. Every additional minute spent traveling through turbulence increases the wear and tear on the aircraft, as well as the risk of injury to passengers and flight attendants.”
Although the largest increases in atmospheric air movements were detected in the United States and the North Atlantic, the recent study revealed that there were also significant increases in turbulence on other heavily traveled air routes over Europe, the Middle East, and the South Atlantic. .
Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading and co-author of the study said: “After a decade of research showing that climate change will increase clear-air turbulence in the future, we now have evidence to suggest that the increase has already started. We should invest in better turbulence detection and forecasting systems, to prevent rougher air from translating into bumpier flights for decades to come.”
How does all this affect turbulence?
The experts say that “a stronger vertical temperature gradient leads to a more chaotic jet stream. As jet streams get stronger, they become more chaotic and unstable, and the number of clear-air turbulence encounters increases.”
For decades, Williams has warned about the impacts of climate change on flights. In a letter published in the journal Nature Climate Change in 2013, he had already anticipated that clear-air turbulence posed a significant problem, as it cannot be detected by pilots, satellites or onboard radar.
This type of turbulence is related to atmospheric jet streams, which are expected to become stronger as climate change worsens.
There are other studies
A 2016 study warned of how climate change could result in an increase in the costs of air travel. Researchers at the University of Reading noted that doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would have the effect of speeding up jet streams and narrowing air currents in the upper atmosphere, which normally flow from west to east. This would result in longer travel times for those flying west over the Atlantic.
Turbulence forecasts are around 70% to 80% accurate and airlines plan flight routes to try to avoid them as much as possible. This frequently leads to longer flight times, longer waiting times, higher fuel use and more CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, making the problem a vicious cycle that seems difficult to break out of. Meanwhile, the aviation industry has a series of studies underway to find the best way to reduce its CO2 emissions.
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