By : Franyi Sarmiento, Ph.D., Inspenet, June 16, 2022
This week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) left its forecast for 2022 oil demand growth largely unchanged at 3.4 million barrels per day (mb/d).
This was revealed by the monthly OPEC report, explaining that in 2021 the growth of world oil demand remained unchanged, at 5.7 mb/d. In the report, the demand in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) increased by 2.6 mb/d in 2021, while outside the OECD it showed a growth of 3.1 mb/d.
In the statement, he explains that, within the quarters, the second quarter of this year “is revised downwards, reflecting the blockade in a part of China that leads to lower-than-expected demand, while the second half of 2022 is revised upwards due to expectations of increased demand during the summer holidays and driving season.”
Consequently, OPEC forecasts that oil demand growth in 2022 will be 1.8 mb/d in the OECD and 1.6 mb/d in non-OECD members.
In addition, the organization stated that the estimate for non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2021 “remains virtually unchanged at 0.6 mb/d”, adding that “total US liquids production is estimated to be .increased by 0.1 mb/d yoy in 2021.”
Meanwhile, he indicated that the forecast for non-OPEC supply growth in 2022 was revised downward by 0.25 mb/d, to 2.1 mb/d.
“Russia’s liquid production for 2022 is revised downward by 0.25 mb/d. The US liquid supply growth forecast for 2022 remains marginally unchanged at 1.3 mb/d,” OPEC said.
The organization anticipates that the United States, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Guyana and China will drive the growth in the supply of liquids in 2022, while decreases are expected mainly in Russia, Indonesia and Thailand.
This material from the ValoraAnalitik portal was edited for clarity, style and length.
Source : https://www.valoraanalitik.com/2022/06/14/opep-baja-prevision-demanda-petroleo-segundo-trimestre/
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