Author: José López M. Inspector/Analyst, August 23, 2023.
Introduction
There is today a deep-rooted understanding about the use of hydrocarbons from fossil organic remains by humanity; which is exerting a substantial detrimental influence on the natural environment.
These fossil hydrocarbons generate polluting emissions locally at extraction and application points, and their continued use is leading to long-lasting disturbances in the global climate system.
However, the implementation of significant changes in our behavior patterns has proven to be a challenge of considerable complexity for transition policies.
The use of fossil fuels has been associated with the phenomenon of climate change, environmental degradation and economic disparity. As a result, there has been a growing demand for the elimination of fossil fuels and the transformation towards renewable energy sources.
This article examines the effective impact of transition policies aimed at eliminating fossil fuels , taking into account various aspects such as the adoption of renewable energy, changes in the composition of the energy matrix, and the challenges involved in this process.
Energy transition policies
The transition policies towards a more sustainable and clean energy matrix face several significant challenges that cover aspects such as investment and financing, intermittency and storage of renewable energy.
As well as the adaptation of infrastructures and electrical networks, the social impact of the transition, the need for technology and innovation, politics and regulation, global coordination, education and public perception, economic competitiveness, the availability of resources and supplies, among others.
In addition, electrical infrastructure and grids must be upgraded to optimally integrate and manage alternative energy, while addressing the social impacts of the transition, ensuring a just transformation for affected communities.
Likewise, it is essential to increase public awareness and overcome misperceptions through education on the importance and benefits of energy change.
From a scientific perspective, it is clear that it is imperative to redesign our energy system in order to completely eliminate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. However, in addition to the inherent technical obstacles, the intrinsic nature of the climate change phenomenon introduces a complexity that also makes it politically difficult to address.
A gradual reduction in the production of fossil fuels is crucial to mitigate the most severe impacts of the climate crisis. Without transition policies focused on limiting the supply of these fuels, much of the emission reductions achieved through measures to reduce demand for fossil fuels could be reversed.
Consumption of energy from fossil fuels
Energy consumption by country tends to reflect more the size of the population than the actual consumption of fossil fuels per person. What do these comparisons look like when we adjust them based on population?
In the graph of figure 1, you can see the amount of energy from fossil fuels consumed per person. It is the sum of primary energy from coal, oil and gas. It is observed that globally the largest consumers use more than ten times the amount of fossil energy than some of the smallest consumers 1 .
While progress towards carbon neutrality is necessary, it is important to recognize that natural gas and oil will continue to be essential elements in the energy transition.
It is essential that strategies are implemented that allow a responsible and sustainable use of fossil fuels, in line with the objectives of reducing emissions and promoting cleaner energy sources.
The transition to low-carbon energy sources requires strong transition technology and policies that drive progress in a new direction. This understanding will allow us to identify the best strategies to move towards a future based on low carbon energy sources.
Green energy derives from intrinsically regenerative sources. (For example, capturing wind energy through wind turbines or solar energy through photovoltaic cells does not impact the future availability of wind or sunlight).
The planet receives a remarkable amount of solar energy, even in the context of our modern energy-demanding societies. Solar radiation reaching Earth’s habitable regions exceeds more than 1,000 times the energy obtained globally from fossil fuels annually.
Transition to cleaner energy sources
Modern technology plays a key role in the transition to cleaner energy sources. Wind turbines and solar photovoltaic cells efficiently take advantage of solar energy flows and convert them into electricity, surpassing traditional methods such as burning biomass in efficiency.
In addition, the costs of wind and solar photovoltaic energy have experienced a significant decrease, becoming conventional and economically viable technologies.
At the same time, existing sources of electricity generation such as nuclear and hydroelectric power also offer the advantage of not generating CO 2 emissions . These technological innovations contribute to the development of a more sustainable and environmentally friendly energy system.
Impact of the growth of renewable energies in energy systems
Currently, the rapid growth of renewable technologies is being discussed; however, it is important to know what percentage of primary energy comes from renewable energy? And which one is it
the impact of this growth on energy systems?
The following graph in Figure 2 shows the proportion of primary energy consumption that comes from renewable technologies: the mix of hydroelectric, solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tidal and modern biofuels [does not include traditional biomass, which can be an important source of energy in low-income settings]2 .
Electrifying everything is a great plan as transition policies.
However, the concept of “electrifying everything” is ambitious to a certain degree, because not all processes can be easily adapted to electrification.
Some inherent characteristics of fossil hydrocarbons, such as their energy density and their ability to generate high temperatures, are difficult to emulate.
The inherent energy density of fossil hydrocarbons is of significant importance in the field of transportation. Since a vehicle must transport its energy source during its movement, the weight and volume of said source are crucial elements.
Vehicles powered by electricity are emerging as a widely supported solution to supplant the use of petroleum derivatives; however, they are not a universally suitable solution.
For vehicles that carry light loads and have the ability to recharge frequently, such as passenger cars, the weight penalty of batteries is not a significant problem.
However, in sectors such as aviation, shipping, or long-distance trucking, where heavy loads need to be transported to far-flung locations without the possibility of frequent recharging, the disparity in energy density between fossil fuels and batteries pose a considerable challenge.
Which renewable source is more important?
Taking into account the share of primary energy used to generate electricity, the most relevant renewable source in the world is hydroelectric (especially hydraulic), followed by wind, solar and then all the others. Speaking in figures, of the 7,931 TWh (terawatt-hours) of electricity generated worldwide from renewable sources in 2021, some 4,274 TWh (almost 54%) come from hydropower, some 1,862 TWh (more than 23 %) of wind and about 1,033 TWh (or 13%) of solar3 .
Electricity generated from alternative sources cannot be the solution to reduce emissions in those processes that cannot operate with electricity. In these cases, zero carbon fuels are required that can replicate the properties of fossil fuels, that is, fuels with high energy density that can be burned.
Although there are several options, each of them has advantages and disadvantages, and generally requires more effort to be commercially and environmentally viable.
The main responsible for climate change.
Clean energy plays a critical role in the search for a more climate-secure future. Energy production is responsible for a large part of the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming, especially through the burning of fossil fuels to generate electricity and heat.
These fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas, are primarily responsible for climate change , accounting for more than 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and almost 90% of carbon dioxide emissions.
The scientific community has made it clear that, to avoid the most serious impacts of climate change, it is necessary to cut emissions almost in half by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by 2050.
To achieve this goal, it is critical to end our dependence on fossil fuels and focus on alternative sources of energy that are clean, accessible, affordable, sustainable, and reliable.
Abundantly found all around us, such as wind, solar, hydroelectric, biomass, and geothermal, clean energy is naturally renewable energy that emits little or no greenhouse gases or air pollutants. .
Although fossil fuels still account for more than 70% of world energy production, green energy sources are gaining ground. Currently, about 30% of electricity comes from renewable sources.
Approximately 80 percent of the global population resides in nations characterized by their status as net importers of fossil hydrocarbons, which implies that around 5 billion individuals depend on the supply of oil and coal derivatives from other states, exposing them to to situations of vulnerability to crises and geopolitical disturbances.
By contrast, renewable energy sources are accessible in all countries and their potential has not been fully exploited.
Renewable energies carry the possibility of disengaging from import dependency, offering nations the opportunity to diversify their economic bases and shield them from unpredictable fluctuations in fossil hydrocarbon values, while promoting comprehensive economic development, the job creation and poverty alleviation.
Uncertainty about the exact moment when the effects of global warming become overwhelming does not relieve us of the responsibility to act forcefully.
As the climate system comes under increased pressure and faces negative effects, stronger action is imperative as soon as possible.
The cumulative nature of the climate system tells us that the longer we wait, the greater the challenges we will face.
Immediate action is needed in the electricity and electric vehicle sectors, where solutions are more feasible to implement. In addition, we must focus on building highly efficient new buildings in energy terms.
The premise of acting sooner is based on the need to face the challenges of climate change more effectively and avoid further complications in the future.
Renewables or stagnation? Discuss the real impact of transition policies on the phase out of fossil fuels. The complete phase out of fossil fuels may not be feasible in the short term due to economic, technical and infrastructural factors.
Stagnation is not a sustainable option, but neither can transition be driven solely by idealistic goals. It is necessary to address the challenges in a balanced way, considering energy security, job creation and loss, as well as the effects on communities that depend on the fossil fuel industry. The diversification of the energy matrix is important, as well as the promotion of energy efficiency and public education on the importance of reducing the carbon footprint.
Conclusion
Ultimately, the way forward involves a global commitment to strike a balance between environmental goals and economic realities. The evolution towards a more sustainable energy system will require cooperation, adaptability and a pragmatic approach to seize the opportunities offered by renewable energy without ignoring the complexities that its adoption entails. Instead of a “Renewables or Stagnation” dichotomy, it is time to move towards a “Renewables and Pragmatism” perspective, where innovation and deliberate action come together to forge a cleaner, more viable energy future for generations to come.
References:
- Statistical Review of the World Energy Institute of Energy (2023).
- Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser and Pablo Rosado (2022) – “Energy”. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: ‘https://ourworldindata.org/energy’
- https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels
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