NASA’s James Webb Telescope , in collaboration with ESA and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), has been assigned to study asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth object with an extremely low probability of impact in 2032. Observations will improve estimates of its size and refine calculations about its trajectory.
An asteroid under scientific scrutiny
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was detected on December 27, 2024, and has been closely monitored by the astronomical community ever since. Currently, calculations indicate that there is a 98% chance that it will safely pass by Earth on December 22, 2032, but a small margin of uncertainty remains.
The problem is that in the coming months this asteroid will no longer be visible from our planet, which could keep the question open until its reappearance in 2028.
Importance of observation with the James Webb telescope
Determining the exact size of the asteroid is crucial to calculating the potential effects of an impact. Current estimates put its diameter at between 40 and 90 metres , a significant difference in terms of the damage it could cause in the event of a collision.
The Webb telescope will use its MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument) to analyse the asteroid’s heat emission, a more precise method than studying reflected light. This will allow a more accurate calculation of its real size. Additionally, the NIRCam (Near Infrared Camera) instrument will complement this data with measurements of its position.
Webb’s first measurements of 2024 YR4 are scheduled for March, when the asteroid will be at its brightest. A second round of observations will take place in May, before YR4 temporarily disappears from view with ground-based telescopes .
International coordination in planetary defense
The study of the asteroid is part of global planetary defence efforts. ESA’s Planetary Defence Office, in collaboration with NASA and other agencies, will evaluate the results to further clarify the object’s trajectory and its level of risk.
With Webb data, astronomers hope to reduce uncertainty and ensure that 2024 YR4 does not pose a threat. Although the probability of impact remains low, detailed analysis is crucial for the safety of our planet and for developing mitigation strategies for future threats from near-Earth objects .
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Source: European Space Agency
Photo: Shutterstock
