{"id":330776,"date":"2026-01-22T10:11:56","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T14:11:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inspenet.com\/noticias\/iea-projects-new-balance-in-the-global-oil-market\/"},"modified":"2026-01-22T13:45:53","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T17:45:53","slug":"iea-projects-new-balance-in-the-global-oil-market","status":"publish","type":"noticias","link":"https:\/\/inspenet.com\/en\/news\/iea-projects-new-balance-in-the-global-oil-market\/","title":{"rendered":"IEA projects new balance in the global oil market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) confirms an increase in world oil demand for 2026<\/strong>, which will reach 930 thousand barrels per day (kb\/d). This upturn represents a sustained economic recovery and lower prices than those recorded a year ago. As in previous periods, non-OECD countries will absorb all of this growth. <\/p>\n\n

Non-OPEC+ oil demand<\/h2>\n\n

On the other hand, the supply picture is nuanced. In December 2025, world production fell to 107.4 million barrels per day (mb\/d)<\/strong>, dragged down by declines in Kazakhstan and the Middle East, while Russia showed a notable rebound. <\/p>\n\n

Despite this one-off decline, the projection for 2026 indicates a rise to 108.7 mb\/d<\/strong>. Most of the growth will come from non-OPEC+ producers, particularly the American bloc led by the United States and Brazil. <\/p>\n\n

Saudi Arabia and Russia lead OPEC+ production<\/h2>\n\n

Within the OPEC+ group, total production reached 43.29 mb\/d in December 2025<\/strong>, with sustainable capacity of up to 48 mb\/d. This leaves an available production margin of 4.56 mb\/d. <\/p>\n\n

Saudi Arabia remains the leading producer, with 9.7 mb\/d and an effective cushion of 2.41 mb\/d. Russia produced 9.56 mb\/d, while Iraq and the UAE reached 4.34 and 3.64 mb\/d respectively. Venezuela held production steady at 0.99 mb\/d<\/strong>, while Kazakhstan reduced its output to 1.5 mb\/d. <\/p>\n\n

Refining and prices under seasonal pressure<\/h2>\n\n

Refining activity is also adjusting to the new context. Global refineries reached production of 85.7 mb\/d<\/a> in December<\/strong>, although a slight seasonal drop is anticipated during the first quarter of 2026. Profit margins, especially in Europe, have weakened due to falling distillate prices. <\/p>\n\n

In terms of inventories, the market is in ample surplus. Observed global stockpiles increased by 470 million barrels during 2025<\/strong>. This surplus has been driven by Chinese imports, higher offshore storage and an increase in U.S. gas liquids stocks. A daily increase of 2.5 mb was recorded in November, and preliminary data for December point to an additional build-up. <\/p>\n\n

Geopolitical factors affect but do not alter the balance sheet<\/h2>\n\n

Crude oil prices, meanwhile, have been sensitive to external factors. Geopolitical tension surrounding Iran and Venezuelapushed the price of Brent up to 66 dollars per barrel<\/strong> at the beginning of January. However, the reduction in exports from these countries has been partially offset by the Russian recovery, which reached its highest production in almost three years. <\/p>\n\n

Meanwhile, attacks on infrastructures in the Black Sea Black Sea<\/a><\/strong> and the Caspian limited the flow from Kazakhstan. However, the buildup of global inventories has acted as a buffer zone, stabilizing prices and reducing immediate pressure on supply. <\/p>\n\n

Abundance with caution<\/h2>\n\n

Overall, the oil oil market<\/a><\/strong> is heading towards a year of positive balances, where the abundance of supply and high reserves will allow us to absorb eventual disruptions.<\/p>\n\n

The evolution of the conflict in key regions and the OPEC+ production strategy will be decisive for price behavior in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n

Source and photo: IEA<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Demand to grow more than expected as oversupply creates a cushion in inventories<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9014,"featured_media":330676,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categoria_noticias":[13026,13036],"etiqueta_noticias":[],"class_list":["post-330776","noticias","type-noticias","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","categoria_noticias-energy","categoria_noticias-oil-and-gas"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inspenet.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/noticias\/330776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inspenet.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/noticias"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inspenet.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/noticias"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inspenet.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9014"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inspenet.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=330776"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/inspenet.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/noticias\/330776\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inspenet.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/330676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inspenet.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=330776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"categoria_noticias","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inspenet.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categoria_noticias?post=330776"},{"taxonomy":"etiqueta_noticias","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inspenet.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/etiqueta_noticias?post=330776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}